#俄乌冲突即将结束？ The path to peace remains fraught with obstacles, and a short-term resolution is still not optimistic

• Current Situation Assessment:

• Despite ongoing multilateral efforts, reaching a reconciliation remains challenging. Both parties have not shown a willingness to abandon key conditions, making it difficult to achieve a viable agreement in the short term.

• Two potential paths for future peace (Source: The Wall Street Journal):

1. "De Facto Partition": Ukraine may retain about 80% sovereignty, with 20% of the territory effectively under Russian control, resisting formal cession in exchange for security guarantees and Western support.

2. Political Subjugation: Ukraine may lose its independence under pressure, falling into Russian control and a "protectorate" role.

• Suggestions for Designing a Peace Mechanism:

• Combination of Military and Political Pressure: It is necessary to ensure that all parties expect no chance of winning a war, using military support and diplomatic pressure to compel Russia to enter negotiations.

• International Guarantee Mechanism: It is recommended to involve a third party (such as China, India, or the United Nations) as a guarantor of the ceasefire, enhancing monitoring and establishing a "re-sanctioning" mechanism to increase the costs of violating the agreement.

• Continued Strengthening of Ukraine's Defensive Capabilities: Continued assistance with advanced weapons and air defense systems to ensure Ukraine's ability to resist any future aggression, thereby enhancing its negotiating leverage.

• Overall Conclusion: There is currently no clear path to an immediate end to the conflict, peace is still hopeful but requires time, strong external support, and complex arrangements. In the long term, if a reliable ceasefire and security mechanism are not established, the conflict may evolve into a "frozen conflict" or a prolonged stalemate.