A-shares surge $BTC but plummets against the trend? Increasing positions to 116,000 without negative news, Russia-Ukraine negotiations become a key variable!
This morning, A-shares were thriving, while Bitcoin fell, but the US stock market didn't drop significantly. I couldn't find a clear reason for the decline after checking various data, as the movements of the US stock market and Bitcoin are highly correlated; unless the US stock market experiences a significant drop, the correlation shouldn't be strong.
Not seeing any substantial negative news, I increased my position, reducing from 117,300 to 116,000. The essence of the market hasn't changed; the three major US stock indices only fluctuated slightly before the close, while Trump has been busy with the negotiations over the Russia-Ukraine conflict these past few days.
Back to the negotiations, the core issues are discussing territorial concessions and security guarantees. The US and Europe proposed a moderate plan, but Zelensky has to take it back to discuss counterproposals domestically; the constitutional referendum is decided by Ukraine itself. Europe values security commitments the most, while the US wants to establish a principled consensus and then legislate to ensure effectiveness even after the changeover. The expected timeline is within a few weeks, not dragging on for months, with the goal of showcasing the unity of the US, Europe, and Ukraine to pave the way for the next round of negotiations.
Although the Russia-Ukraine situation is complex, it hasn’t touched the roots of the US economy and inflation; the market has long anticipated that a ceasefire won't happen in the short term.
Looking at Bitcoin data, there has been quite a bit of turnover today, mainly from those who bought the dip last week; experienced players haven’t moved much and are still watching the drama. The trading volume for spot and ETF hasn't increased, and there are no signs of panic selling. We'll wait a couple of days to see the market repair itself.
Although prices have dropped, the support at 115,000 remains relatively stable, and investor consensus is slowly building. The two major support levels haven't been breached, and a large amount of capital is clustering around 117,000; this position is likely to become a new base.
Bitcoin has broken its historical high, and ETH has set a new high for this year! I will reorganize internally this evening! I have already gone all-in. There are still 15 spots available internally, sign up directly!!!
