On Monday, a tense atmosphere of 'big events approaching' permeated the global market: the dollar strengthened against the trend, gold and U.S. Treasury yields rose before falling back, while U.S. stocks stagnated near historical highs. Although the magnitude of the ups and downs seems limited on the surface, the market structure has revealed a 'leakage signal'—overall presenting a pattern of 'dollar up, everything else under pressure', as if investors have 'received a tip' in advance and proactively adjusted their positions before the Jackson Hole annual meeting.
This week's market focus will be entirely on Fed Chairman Powell's annual meeting speech on Friday, while Wall Street's 'change in direction' has already sent early signals:
1. The market's expected probability of a Fed rate cut in September has dropped from 100% last week to 80%, indicating a significant cooling of rate cut expectations;
2. Major institutions' research reports almost unanimously predict that Powell will release 'hawkish signals':
• HSBC analysis points out that current inflation pressures have not eased, and employment data is slowing, presenting characteristics similar to 'stagflation'. Powell is unlikely to release easing signals again; if he relaxes policy at this time, the risks will be further amplified.
• Bank of America believes that Powell has every reason to 'hold steady', maintaining a cautious stance at the annual meeting to avoid having policy 'captured' by market expectations;
• Citigroup has revealed that its dollar position indicator has shifted from a slight short position to neutral, indicating that current investors have no clear bullish or bearish bias towards the dollar.
For Powell, the shift in Wall Street's perspective is precisely the 'window period'—even if hawkish signals are released, the market is unlikely to overreact, as investors are gradually accepting the Fed's more hawkish policy stance. A more likely scenario is that the market digests the risk of 'policy underperformance' in advance of his speech, rather than waiting for an unexpected surprise.
Based on Powell's past style, he is unlikely to provide a clear stance while maintaining a cautious policy tone for a long time; however, recent changes in labor market data may influence his expression. Ultimately, he is more likely to use vague and professional language, leaving interpretation space for the market.
If you want to gain deep insights into the global market, you can subscribe to (Global Market Strategy: Accurate Predictions (Sequel))—we do not pile up isolated news but connect them into coherent market logic, providing you with actionable guidelines to answer core questions: Can the Chinese stock market see a resurgence? Can gold reverse its downturn? Will the yuan face fluctuations? Is a correction in U.S. stocks imminent?
This issue's key highlights preview:
1. Directional analysis of A-shares: On June 26, we accurately predicted that the Shanghai Composite Index would recover '3674 points', and now that target has been achieved. Is the A-share market undergoing a 'trend reversal' or 'continuation of highs'?
• An exclusive breakdown of the key forces behind China's stock market, analyzing core strategic tasks for the next 3-5 years to help you understand long-term trends;
• Predictions for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the next 1 year and 3 years, providing layout references for medium to long-term investors.
2. The Fed's policy code: A brief message of fewer than 200 words conceals the Fed's policy direction for the next three months. The current core contradiction in the market is no longer just 'when to cut rates'.
3. The dollar and the rate cut game: Is the rate cut window opening? Will the dollar face a sharp decline? A key event will directly determine the short-term fate of the dollar.
4. Gold Strategy Guide: From 'market darling' to 'temporarily out of favor', can gold make a comeback? We not only provide a clear judgment but also offer a set of executable global operational strategies. $BTC $ETH #币安HODLer空投PLUME #Strategy增持比特币 #BitDigital转型
