1. Key market-moving events – Last week (August 11-17)
#البيتكوين - Reaches all-time high – The price of Bitcoin surpassed $124,000, setting a new record driven by optimism over the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations of accommodative policy from the Federal Reserve and institutional inflows.
Rising Initial Public Offering – The Thiel-backed stock surged to $90 before settling at $68, achieving an 83% increase from the offering price, valuing it at about $9.9 billion. Proceeds are expected to be converted to stablecoins under the GENIUS Act.
My Circle and Stripe – Stripe unveiled the Tempo (Timbre) system, a first-layer (L1) payment system compatible with Ethereum. In contrast, Circle announced the Circle Payments Network and Arc, a first-layer (L1) payment system specific to the USDC stablecoin. Both announcements highlight the fierce competition for control over stablecoin mechanisms.
Macroeconomic data – July Consumer Price Index +0.2% month-over-month (core 3.1% year-over-year) confirmed the decline in inflation, but the Producer Price Index caused a shock (+0.9% month-over-month, the fastest in two years), leading to confusion in Federal Reserve expectations.
Cryptocurrency inflows – Weekly Bitcoin inflows weakened, totaling $289 million. In contrast, Ethereum led weekly inflows with a total of $2.3 billion, achieving a daily record of $1.07 billion.
Key Point – On August 9, the Canton network executed the first U.S. repurchase transaction based on blockchain technology. U.S. Treasury securities deposited with DTCC were used as collateral in $USDC , and the transaction was settled immediately via blockchain. This event represents a major turning point in integrating a $27 trillion market with crypto systems, paving the way for continuous 24/7 integration.
2. Important events and economic data for this week
Tuesday, August 19 – Housing Data – Tests price sensitivity with housing data related to building starts and building permits.
Wednesday, August 20 – Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes – The market is focused on the prospects of interest rate cuts in September (at ~62 basis points).
Thursday, August 21 – Jobless Claims – Further weakness in the labor market could impact Federal Reserve movements.
Friday, August 22 – Powell's speech at Jackson Hole will be pivotal in confirming or refuting expectations regarding accommodative monetary policy.
3. Market Outlook – Strategy for this week and the near term
Bitcoin – The price of Bitcoin briefly surpassed $124,000, marking a new all-time high, but momentum later faded. The market is currently consolidating around $115,500, leading to the removal of a large number of liquidations at $116,500 and contributing to the recovery of financing rates to healthy levels. This consolidation is likely to continue, targeting $114,500 as the next step before a potential rebound. A sustained breakout above $120,000 is a significant signal for resuming the upward trend.
#إيثريوم –($ETH ) Ethereum continues to show strong inflows and positive sentiment, making it an excellent opportunity this week. This comes at a time when Bitcoin is experiencing consolidation and a decline in its dominance, with clear signs of capital shifting toward Ethereum and other high-market-cap digital currencies. This shift could support further bullish momentum for Ethereum.
#سولانا a ($SOL ) – SOL shows signs of strength despite market volatility and the collapse of other currencies. Its correlation with small companies in the U.S. maintains its favorable position among altcoins. A treasury company perspective may add an additional boost to this narrative.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical – Supporting liquidity factors (repos, Treasury bond issuances, money market fund turnover) are still in place. The Trump-Putin summit removed some immediate geopolitical risks, but Powell's speech at Jackson Hole has now become the main market trend catalyst.
