The crypto-analyst under the pseudonym gigisulivan published a series of materials where he detailed the possible completion of the current bullish cycle of Bitcoin. According to him, one of the most reliable indicators for determining the peaks and troughs of the cycle remains the Stock-to-Flow Ratio. This indicator previously allowed predicting the drop of BTC below $16,500 and also indicated the growth potential in the current range of $150,000–$200,000.
The analyst noted that a sharp spike in metric indicators during the first correction after the main impulse has always been an important factor. In the current cycle, such a jump is not observed. Nevertheless, he considers the achievement of $150,000 quite possible, although a rise in Stock-to-Flow is needed for confirmation by the end of September.
In the long term, gigisulivan expects that during the phase of the next bear market, Bitcoin may correct below $35,000. According to his calculations, such a stage will most likely occur in October–November 2026. For investors, this could be an opportunity to buy BTC at a lower price.
The analyst paid special attention to the on-chain metrics MVRV and Puell Multiple. In his opinion, MVRV has repeatedly shown reliable signals for entering and exiting the market. In particular, in 2022, it clearly indicated the optimal moment for buying. In the next 2 months, the analyst expects MVRV to rise to the 3.0–3.5 level, which will be an important signal of a possible cycle completion.
Puell Multiple, in turn, shows the current state of miners and their profitability. Historically, this indicator has repeatedly provided early buy signals even outside of global bear market phases, as happened in September 2024. Currently, its values remain moderate. This coincides with the forecast of the continuation of the 'bull run' for another 8–12 weeks.
The analyst emphasizes that if MVRV rises above 3.0 and Puell Multiple reaches 4.0, investors should closely monitor market dynamics on a daily basis. This will allow them to notice signs of the current growth's completion in time.