Josh Olszewicz, a cryptocurrency analyst, believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will have to go through a phase of “grinding and probability” in the next six weeks, before the market has a chance to improve significantly in Q4. In the video released on August 18, he emphasized that the September seasonal pattern, weakening momentum signals, and mixed ETF capital flow developments are calling for patience rather than leverage.

“In summary, in the short term, the market is likely to be sideways or slightly negative, but in Q4, the outlook still leans towards growth,” Olszewicz shares.

ETF Capital Flows and September Seasonal Patterns: Key Deciding Factors

According to Olszewicz, Bitcoin's short-term trajectory revolves around two key factors: ETF capital flows and the September seasonal pattern.

  • He hopes the market “will just move sideways, nothing significant, ETF flows flat in the coming weeks, perhaps even worse in the next 4 weeks” to reset the baseline and prepare for a breakout in Q4.

  • Last week, Bitcoin ETF capital flows reached about $550 million, a figure considered good in the current context, but still significantly lower than previous boom periods.

  • Buying flows from corporations have also slowed down, reflecting the persistent selling pressure.

The consequence is not a clear bearish signal, but rather “time, not price”: either there will be a strong correction in the coins that have risen sharply, or the market will “stay still” for about 6 weeks.

Bitcoin Chart: Clear Boundaries

On the chart, Olszewicz outlines important technical levels:

  • $121,000 – $122,000: “This is an imaginary boundary. If BTC closes above this area for the day, I am willing to lean towards a bullish trend.” He believes that above $120,000, the target of $150,000 will be quite “easy.”

  • Important support zone: 20-week MA (20-week moving average) at $104,000. If it closes below this zone, especially in October, that will be a much more concerning signal.

  • Ichimoku Cloud: If BTC closes within the cloud (daily cloud) or has a bearish TK cross, that is a warning sign for a correction scenario.

Olszewicz emphasizes the conditional nature of the system: “If this happens then that, not just one scenario.”

Macroeconomic Factors and Short-Term Risks

In the short term, the only event – the Jackson Hole conference where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks – is seen as a clear catalyst. A tough message (continuing to keep interest rates high, waiting for more data) could put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Additionally, Olszewicz mentioned political factors: “Trump may announce a replacement for Powell just before Powell speaks… to grab media attention.” While not the base scenario, it is still a news risk to be aware of.

In the long term, he is more optimistic due to the context of global money supply and rising public debt – which are supportive factors for scarce assets like Bitcoin.

Q4: The Bright Door is Still Wide Open

  • August is generally still positive, but history shows that 6 consecutive months of increase is a rare occurrence. Therefore, September may pose challenges for traders.

  • With Ethereum, despite a record week of ETF flows, Olszewicz believes ETH's technical position is currently “bad for long positions,” and if ETH does not take the lead, the overall market uptrend will also be hard to maintain.

However, for long-term investors, he advises not to be too volatile:

  • The power-law corridor shows that if there is a 30–50% probability of Bitcoin entering a parabolic phase beyond the long-term average, it is best to “sit tight and wait for the market to prove itself.”

  • Key technical levels to watch: stay above the Ichimoku cloud, protect the $104,000 area, and most importantly, close the daily candle above $121,000–$122,000. At that point, the target of $150,000 is entirely feasible.

Conclusion

In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate in a sideways range or experience a correction, especially since September is statistically unfavorable. However, the Q4 outlook remains positive if BTC maintains key technical thresholds.

The core message from Olszewicz for traders:

  • Be patient, no early leverage.

  • Monitor important technical thresholds.

  • Be ready for a breakout in Q4 if the market confirms the signal.

Short term: “nothing” – sideways or pullback.
Medium term (Q4): Bullish outlook, heading towards $150,000 if it breaks above $121,000–$122,000.