CRYPTO MECHANIC
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Bitcoin Top Is In?
There’s a lot of talk on the internet that the Bitcoin cycle top is already in and that we’re now heading into a bear market. So let’s dive straight into the charts and see if there are any signs of a top or not.
BTCUSD (Monthly)
Nothing much to see on the monthly chart, Still looks fine, Above the highs and clearly in an uptrend.
BTCUSD (Weekly)
Consolidating above the previous highs and as long as its above the highs. I think its a fine looking chart.
Structurally this chart will remain bullish even if it drops down to $100k. I know its far but this is high timeframe structure.
Range bounded
While there is so much noise on the social media, if you zoom out, Bitcoin have been trading in the same price range for the last 5 weeks. This is the price range where everyone is getting ulta bullish or ultra bearish. All of this while price is doing almost nothing.
The concerning part
There is something that is concerning on the Bitcoin chart right now and its this chart.
There is a weekly fakout on Bitcoin, You can also call it SFP.
Historically, if we look at the last few years of data, the weekly fake-outs have played out pretty damn well. Every time there was a weekly fake-out, we saw Bitcoin move in the opposite direction.
The 2021 top was also after a fake-out. So it is something not to be ignored.
My thoughts on the market
I personally don't think the top is in yet, I always say one candle isn't enough to decide what the future will be, I pay more attention to the structure and its still bullish.
Not sure if it will just be a shallow pullback and Bitcoin maintains the price above $112K, or if it will be a deep pullback to the $100K–108K zone. But I think as long as the structure is intact, the market looks fine to me. Everyone was too excited about Altseason last week. Market makers will always shake out the late buyers.
I don’t think the market has topped yet we haven’t seen anything crazy so far. Ethereum is still below its 2021 ATH. Most altcoins are still struggling. This isn’t how market tops usually look.
The last part of the cycle is usually full of excitement, euphoria, and big moves. I don’t think we’ve seen that yet.
I might be wrong, and I would love to hear your thoughts.
BTCUSD (Monthly)
Nothing much to see on the monthly chart, Still looks fine, Above the highs and clearly in an uptrend.
BTCUSD (Weekly)
Consolidating above the previous highs and as long as its above the highs. I think its a fine looking chart.
Structurally this chart will remain bullish even if it drops down to $100k. I know its far but this is high timeframe structure.
Range bounded
While there is so much noise on the social media, if you zoom out, Bitcoin have been trading in the same price range for the last 5 weeks. This is the price range where everyone is getting ulta bullish or ultra bearish. All of this while price is doing almost nothing.
The concerning part
There is something that is concerning on the Bitcoin chart right now and its this chart.
There is a weekly fakout on Bitcoin, You can also call it SFP.
Historically, if we look at the last few years of data, the weekly fake-outs have played out pretty damn well. Every time there was a weekly fake-out, we saw Bitcoin move in the opposite direction.
The 2021 top was also after a fake-out. So it is something not to be ignored.
My thoughts on the market
I personally don't think the top is in yet, I always say one candle isn't enough to decide what the future will be, I pay more attention to the structure and its still bullish.
Not sure if it will just be a shallow pullback and Bitcoin maintains the price above $112K, or if it will be a deep pullback to the $100K–108K zone. But I think as long as the structure is intact, the market looks fine to me. Everyone was too excited about Altseason last week. Market makers will always shake out the late buyers.
I don’t think the market has topped yet we haven’t seen anything crazy so far. Ethereum is still below its 2021 ATH. Most altcoins are still struggling. This isn’t how market tops usually look.
The last part of the cycle is usually full of excitement, euphoria, and big moves. I don’t think we’ve seen that yet.
I might be wrong, and I would love to hear your thoughts.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
