Will Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Conference on 8/22 be dovish or hawkish? Goldman Sachs predicts: three rate cuts this year, optimistic about short-term US Treasury bonds.

Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Although the market anticipates a rate cut to restart in September, due to increasing uncertainty in inflation and the labor market, Powell is unlikely to provide a clear signal. (Background: Analysts: Rate cut = Circle disaster! The Fed's 1% rate cut directly slashes USDC gross profit by 30%) (Background: The US PPI exploded in July) Bitcoin spiked to $117,000, and Trump’s tariffs sounded the alarm for inflation. Will the Fed still cut rates in September?) The Chair of the Federal Reserve, Powell, is expected to appear and deliver a speech at the Global Central Bank Conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at 10 PM Taiwan time on August 22. Although the market currently anticipates that the Fed will restart rate cuts in September, Trump's tariffs cast a shadow over US inflation and the global economic outlook, leaving uncertainty in September's monetary policy. Therefore, whether Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Conference will release a clear signal for easing or continue the usual rhetoric of 'data dependence' is highly anticipated by global investors. Jackson Hole Outpost: Markets bet on a rate cut in September First, let's look at market predictions. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently predicts an 84.8% probability that the Fed will restart rate cuts in September and cut rates by 25 basis points. Although this is a significant increase from 55.9% a month ago, at the end of July, the probability of a rate cut in September once reached 98%, indicating that current market uncertainty is intensifying. Against this backdrop, analysts predict that Powell's speech this year may not be as clear as last year's, due to the high uncertainty in the current US labor market and inflation situation, which may cause Powell to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, emphasize patience, reiterate data dependence, but not commit to September's direction. Such wording can also maximize the flexibility of Fed policy, avoiding locking in the Fed's monetary policy path before crucial data is released. Goldman Sachs Optimistic Prediction: Three Rate Cuts This Year However, it is worth noting that, unlike the current conservative market analysis, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will cut rates three times this year, with timing in September, October, and December, citing that data shows weak job growth in the US. GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS THE FED TO CUT RATES THREE TIMES THIS YEAR In September, October, and December — citing weakening U.S. job growth. Analysts note job gains have slowed to ~30k per month, well below the ~80k needed for full employment, and future revisions are likely… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 18, 2025 Goldman Sachs analysts point out that job growth has slowed to about 30,000 jobs per month, far below the approximately 80,000 jobs needed for full employment, and future data revisions may be negative. Goldman Sachs also noted that, in addition to trade and immigration issues, there are other risks such as diminishing supplemental hiring, and growth in most industries is close to zero. Although the unemployment rate remains stable, Goldman Sachs warns that even a slight softening in the labor market is concerning. Additionally, Goldman Sachs even predicts that the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points (2 rate cuts) in one go, but only if the unemployment rate rises sharply. In this regard, Goldman Sachs also stated that given the high probability of restarting rate cuts in September, they continue to be optimistic about short-term US Treasury bonds and recommend a long strategy to profit. Related Reports Market Observation) Trump strongly pushes for crypto Fed governors, is a September rate cut a certainty? Fed's Daly: The timing for rate cuts is approaching, and there may be more than two this year (the probability for September is nearly 95%) Trump claims economic data is fake, 'We need to cut rates immediately': New Fed Chair and Labor Statistics Director to be announced in three days. "Will Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Conference on 8/22 be dovish or hawkish? Goldman Sachs predicts: three rate cuts this year, optimistic about short-term US Treasury bonds" This article was first published by BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).