Bitcoin is repeating history. Well-known analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that BTC is currently in the 7th week of the second 'price discovery rally' after the halving, and historical data shows that this time point is often a turning point. Looking back at the past three halving cycles, the correction in 2013 started in the 7th week, in 2017 in the 8th week, and in 2021 in the 6th week; now in 2025, we are again in the 7th week, and history's warning bell has sounded.
Technical indicators are also sending dangerous signals. Although Bitcoin once reached a historical high of $124,500, it then began to consolidate around $115,000, which is a typical topping pattern of 'pulling back after a surge'. Even more concerning is that the RSI has entered the overbought zone, while the trading volume has not kept pace with the price's new highs; this divergence often signals an impending adjustment.
On-chain data is also not very optimistic. Long-term holders are starting to increase their selling, the inflow of short-term speculative funds is slowing down, market sentiment indicators have long been in the greed zone, and discussions about Bitcoin on social media remain heated. These are all typical signs of an overheated market; when everyone is shouting bullish, it's often the time to be cautious.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may face a 20-30% correction. During this year's first correction, BTC fell from $110,000 to below $75,000, a drop of about 30%. Similar adjustments occurred during the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, with a range of 20-40%. Although this level of pullback can be alarming, in the long run, it is actually a sign of healthy market development.
But don't be too pessimistic. Multiple analysts believe that even with a short-term pullback, Bitcoin's long-term upward trend remains intact. Any adjustment may create conditions for a new round of rising in the fourth quarter, with the next target price potentially close to $160,000. Institutional funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin ETFs are performing positively, and the uncertainty of global monetary policy also provides a safe-haven demand for Bitcoin.
For investors, it is now a test of resilience. Short-term traders can focus on the gains and losses around the $115,000 support level, while medium to long-term investors can view possible corrections as opportunities to accumulate. Regardless of the strategy adopted, setting reasonable stop-loss levels is very important. In this uncertain market, technical analysis provides a relatively objective reference framework; although it cannot predict with 100% accuracy, it can at least give us a rough judgment of the possible direction of the market.
