August 18 Big Coin and Second Coin Trend Prediction and Key Event Guidance

Core Interval and Trend Prediction​

Big Coin: 114000-116500 range fluctuations, with a higher probability of falling first and then bouncing back​

Second Coin: 4200-4350 range fluctuations, simultaneously showing characteristics of bottoming out and rebounding​

Key Time Nodes​

Monday night - Tuesday early morning: Trump and Zelensky meeting, expected to have limited impact on the market​

Wednesday 23:00: Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak at a blockchain seminar in Wyoming​

Thursday packed events: 20-year Treasury auction (01:00), Federal Reserve meeting minutes (02:00), Bostic's speech (03:00), initial jobless claims data (08:30), services PMI preliminary value (21:45)​

Friday 22:00: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, which needs to be closely monitored​

Market Simulation​

After a sideways consolidation yesterday, a sharp decline occurred this morning. It is worth noting that this decline was not accompanied by clear negative news, but is more likely due to multiple factors resonating: last week's inflation data suppressed interest rate cut expectations, this week's lack of positive news, potential pressure from Powell's speech on Friday, coupled with profit-taking by bulls and a chain reaction caused by collateral liquidation. ​

Current market sentiment is cautious, with short-term downward space still available. However, it should be clear that the market's expectation of an 80% probability of a rate cut in September has not changed, and the bullish trend at the daily level has not reversed, so this round of adjustment can be seen as a deep correction. ​

Once the bearish energy is fully released, a strong rebound is expected, with the overall market showing wide fluctuations at the daily level this week. ​

Today's operating suggestion: Wait for clear signals of a stop-loss before positioning for a rebound. ​

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