The market is always full of opportunities; what’s lacking is the eye to understand the rhythm—dissecting ETH's 1-hour movement today, how to play the 'heartbeat game' in a volatile market?
1. Today's market is all about 'heart racing': Bulls and bears are engaged in a 'tug of war' in the 4200-4500 range.
Opening the 1-hour ETH candlestick chart, the first impression is a sense of 'entanglement'—the price seems to be tethered around 4300, oscillating between the support level of 4250 and the resistance level of 4450 throughout the day, with the Bollinger Bands compressed into a 'compressed biscuit', and trading volume fluctuating wildly as if playing around. This scene is reminiscent of a 'dice game' during a weekend gathering: bulls want to buy low to push the price up, while bears insist on selling during the rebound, with both old rivals flexing their muscles in critical positions, leaving retail investors stunned.
The most thrilling thing to watch was the 'false breakout stunt' during the morning session: after the price briefly surged to 4400, it was instantly crushed back to 4320 by the selling pressure of 30,000 ETH, appearing like a 'lightning rod' on the intraday chart. This operation caught many chasing buyers off guard—you thought it was about to break the resistance and take off? It was just a 'trap' set by the bears. This also validates the old saying in the circle: In a volatile market, any breakout must come with volume; without volume, it’s just a trick.
2. Key points! The two major 'death lines' hide the intentions of the main forces, and you must understand these signals.
4250 support level: the 'psychological defense line' that can't be broken, if it breaks, it will be the fuse for 'more killing more'.
This position is the 'starting point' of ETH's rebound from 4200 on August 14, and it has tested that price level three times in the last three days. Every time it approaches 4250, there have been large orders sweeping in the 4245-4255 range (the depth chart shows frequent orders of tens of thousands), clearly indicating that the main force is 'protecting the market'. But seasoned traders understand that support is not 'ironclad'—if tonight's Federal Reserve speech triggers a Bitcoin plunge, ETH may break below 4250, and the prior low of 4150 will need to be tested again (on-chain data shows there are 23,000 ETH stop-loss orders lurking near 4150).
2. 4450 resistance level: the bears' 'iron cap', don't think of turning it over without 150,000 ETH lighting the fire.
This price level is the high point of the 'gravestone line' from August 15, which trapped over 400,000 ETH of chasing high orders. Now, every time it rebounds above 4400, sell orders flood in like a tide (Level 2 data shows that 150,000 ETH sell orders are piled up in the 4430-4450 range), equivalent to bears setting up a 'machine gun' here. Want to break through? Unless the main force buys 80,000 ETH in a single transaction to pump the price like yesterday, otherwise in the short term it’s 'as solid as a rock'. Interestingly, this morning, a certain exchange's perpetual contract positions showed a 25% increase in open contracts for $4500 call options, which looks more like the main force setting a 'trap' using options leverage, attracting retail traders to follow suit before reversing to harvest them.
3. 'Survival rules' in a volatile market: Don't be an 'emotional retail trader', learn these three moves to be steady as an old dog.
As a 'veteran' who has been in the crypto circle for 5 years, today I'm sharing my hard-earned insights:
First move: Focus on 'anomalous indicators', don't guess tops and bottoms, just grab the signals.
Don't always think about 'buying the bottom and escaping the top'; 90% of predictions in a volatile market will backfire. Keep an eye on the 1-hour candlestick chart: If the lower Bollinger Band (4240) shows a 'bullish engulfing', that's a short-term buying signal; MA5 (4280) golden crosses MA10 (4320), you can cautiously enter long positions with a target of the mid-band at 4400, setting a stop-loss below 4250.
Remember: The profits in a volatile market come from 'rhythm differences', not from 'accurate predictions'.
Second move: Keep position sizes at a 'breathing level'; when you're itchy, resist the urge to go all in.
My team has tested and found: Using 10% of your position to trade in the 4250-4350 range can net 5%+ profit from three 'high sell low buy' trades a day; but using 50% of your position to chase highs and lows can easily result in a 10% account shrink. So remember: The best position size in a volatile market is 'able to resist going all in when itchy, and decisively open positions when fearful'. Before each trade, ask yourself: If I lose 20%, can I sleep well at night?
Third move: Keep an eye on 'external variables', don't get confused just by the candlestick charts.
This morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech nearly crashed Bitcoin—he said 'interest rates may remain high for a long time', and before he finished speaking, BTC dropped from 32000 to 31500, and ETH followed with a 2% plunge.
Therefore, analyzing ETH must combine the 'three macro factors': US CPI data (to be released tonight), progress on ETH ecological projects (such as the zkSync scaling plan praised by Vitalik), and the movements of whale addresses (last night, an address holding 200,000 ETH transferred from Coinbase to a cold wallet, suspected to be a long-term holding).
4. Tonight’s critical battle: Can 4250 hold? Whether it breaks or not is a 'money-making opportunity'.
Lastly, here's a 'thought question': If ETH holds above 4250 before 10 PM tonight, and Bitcoin stabilizes at 31500, it might rebound to the 4350-4400 range tomorrow, at which point you could set up a short position with a target of 4200 and a stop-loss at 4350; if it drops below 4250, wait for it to hit around 4150 and show a 'long lower shadow', that could be a 'golden pit' opportunity, the time to go heavy.
The safest approach is still 'let profits run, let risks stop': set stop-loss and take-profit orders, don't hold onto losing trades out of stubbornness, surviving in a volatile market is more important than making big profits. After all, in the crypto world, 'the last one standing is king' is always the iron rule.
Tell me in the comments, do you think ETH will have a 'heroic rebound' tonight or 'continue to dip'? The three friends with the most likes will receive the (ETH volatile market trading manual) (including real-time price alerts)—the market is never short of opportunities, what’s lacking is people who enter with their brains!
(Note: The above analysis is based on the 1-hour candlestick data from August 18, 2025, strategy is for reference only, risks are borne by yourself.)
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