Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high during the bull market on August 14, but this positive momentum did not last. Since peaking at $124,000, Bitcoin prices have retraced to around $118,000, maintaining this price level on Saturday, August 16. According to the latest on-chain data, this sluggish price trend may continue for several weeks.
Due to ongoing selling pressure, Binance's net Bitcoin flow has turned positive, reflecting changes in market liquidity.
In a Quicktake article on the CryptoQuant platform, anonymous on-chain analyst BorisVest stated that Bitcoin prices may face selling pressure in the next one to two weeks. This prediction is based on the capital flow situation at Binance, primarily focusing on net Bitcoin flow and exchange reserves as key indicators.
According to CryptoQuant data, Binance's net Bitcoin flow has turned positive, while outflow has decreased, reflecting trends in the movement of funds in the market.
BorisVest's analysis indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a distribution phase, especially on the Binance platform, leading to increased market volatility. He explained that it is due to the continuous increase in Binance's trading reserves, with investors moving their Bitcoin to exchanges to take profits, which has caused a brief rise in Bitcoin prices near all-time highs.
BorisVest added that as prices peak, the lack of sufficient buyer support has intensified selling pressure.
Additionally, he mentioned that the gap between perpetual contracts and spot prices reflects the presence of active buyers, creating a favorable environment for the current distribution phase. As new buyers enter, Binance's whale investors seize the opportunity to sell, adding further pressure to market prices.
Overall, although the upward trend has not changed, BorisVest believes that Bitcoin may face ongoing selling pressure in the next one to two weeks.
Whale behavior shows that short-term selling pressure has eased.
Compared to the increase in retail activity, the inflow of whale users holding 1,000-10,000 BTC and humpback whales remains relatively subdued. Currently, whale inflow stands at 1,170 BTC, far below the 14,610 BTC on July 19, when prices were sharply declining.
Indicators show that the market is about to reach a critical turning point.
The short-term price movement of Bitcoin is influenced by support in the range of $116,500 to $117,200. This range converges the 200-day moving average (EMA), trendline support since July, and pivot point S3 ($117,291). Staying above this area is crucial to avoid further downside.
Fibonacci retracement shows that $119,300 (0.5) and $120,800 (0.618) are key areas of resistance for upward movement. If these levels are successfully broken, it is likely to surpass $122,500 and even reach $124,500. However, if support at $116,500 fails, BTC will face support at $113,500 (PF monthly pivot) and broader support at $112,300.
With the Bollinger Bands tightening and the MFI reaching 55, a breakout is expected soon, possibly within 24-48 hours.
The short-term forecast for August 17 relies on whether BTC can stabilize above $116,500. If bulls can maintain above this area, the next targets are $119,300 and $120,800, with a breakout above $122,500 opening up new bullish momentum towards $124,500.
Conversely, if it falls below $116,500, it could quickly test $113,500, with further support at $112,300 and $108,700. Given the supply pressure at $122,000 and increasing selling flow, traders should focus on volume confirmation before making decisions.
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