The AVAX bubble risk now reads 1.13, showing balanced market conditions with neither overheating nor deep undervaluation.
Past readings above 1.75 were linked to unsustainable rallies, while values below 0.75 aligned with long-term recovery phases.
AVAX price historically traded in the $10 to $20 range whenever bubble risk stayed within the neutral mid-zone.
Avalanche (AVAX) is showing a short-term bubble risk value of 1.13, signaling a “business as usual” market condition. Current readings place the asset in a neutral zone, far from overheated extremes and equally distant from deep undervaluation. Traders are now evaluating whether this balance can last or if the next cycle will push the asset into higher-risk territory.
https://twitter.com/ITC_Crypto/status/1956837120162861556 AVAX Price History and Risk Fluctuations
The chart data covers AVAX price action from early 2021 through mid-August 2025, mapping short-term bubble risk values against price cycles. Risk metrics have historically ranged from below 0.50 during oversold markets to above 2.0 during overheated phases.
In early 2021, AVAX surged above $100, with bubble risk exceeding 2.0. This marked one of the most overheated phases in its history. Soon after, AVAX faced steep corrections, falling back into the $60–$70 range before sliding further in 2022.
By mid-2022, bubble risk collapsed below 0.50, signaling market exhaustion. AVAX price traded under $10, reflecting extended oversold conditions. This period lasted several months, allowing accumulation by long-term participants.
Another notable phase occurred in late 2023 and early 2024, when risk values again reached 1.75–2.0. AVAX price climbed toward $30 but failed to hold momentum. Profit-taking surged, pushing values lower and triggering a new consolidation cycle.
Today, the reading of 1.13 sits at the midpoint of this scale, showing moderate risk without signs of imminent overheating. Analysts view this as a balanced environment for traders, with consolidation favored over extreme price swings.
Risk Metrics and Market Implications
Short-term bubble risk models are designed to measure whether markets are approaching unsustainable conditions. For AVAX, readings above 1.50 have consistently marked peaks, while values below 0.75 aligned with long-term recovery setups.
The color-coded model highlights this relationship. Red zones represented risk above 1.75, historically signaling blow-off tops. Blue zones, tied to risk below 0.75, marked undervaluation periods and served as accumulation opportunities.
Currently, AVAX hovers near green and yellow zones, which correspond to the 1.0–1.25 range. Historically, this zone reflected measured trading with limited excess speculation. Traders often use this level to recalibrate positions ahead of larger moves.
Market implications point to stability in the short term. With the bubble risk neutral, traders anticipate neither explosive rallies nor sharp collapses. Instead, sideways accumulation or gradual recovery appears most likely while risk remains anchored near 1.13.
If values climb closer to 1.50, traders may prepare for increased volatility. If they dip below 0.75, a new cycle of long-term positioning could emerge.
Current Market Outlook and Pivotal Question
AVAX currently trades in an environment shaped by neutral risk dynamics. Price action between $10 and $20 has historically correlated with similar mid-range readings. This suggests AVAX is at a crossroads between consolidation and preparation for a larger cycle.
Investor sentiment reflects cautious optimism. With bubble risk stable, long-term participants may view the present as a building phase. Short-term traders, however, are watching closely for any movement that signals overheating or undervaluation.
The risk model provides a roadmap, yet outcomes depend on actual trading activity. If demand increases significantly, bubble risk may rise into higher zones, warning of potential corrections. On the other hand, reduced activity could send values lower, creating opportunities for accumulation.
