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Key week for the markets: Fed, macro data, and Jackson Hole
(What does it mean for #Bitcoin and #Crypto?)
The week ahead is packed with economic data, reports, and monetary policy events that could rewrite the script for 2025. Housing, employment, oil, PMIs, Fed minutes, and especially Powell's speech at Jackson Hole will set the market direction.
These factors not only impact equities or currencies, but also directly affect the crypto ecosystem, as #Bitcoin and digital assets have consolidated as global risk assets very sensitive to liquidity.
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📅 Tuesday: Housing Starts (14:30, Spain time)
Housing starts are a gauge of the real economy.
Single-family homes → key signal of structural demand
Multifamily → more volatile
June data:
Total: +4.6% → 1.321M
Single-family: -4.6% → 883k (low since July 2024)
Multifamily: +30.6% → 414k
👉 A weak reading reinforces rate cut bets → positive for crypto.
👉 A strong reading delays cuts → downward pressure on risk assets.
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📅 Wednesday: EIA Crude Inventories (16:30)
This data measures the weekly crude stock in the U.S.
Inventory increase → oil down → softer inflation → Fed dovish.
Inventory drop → oil up → 'sticky' inflation → Fed hawkish.
⚡ Direct relationship:
High crude = difficult inflation to lower → downward pressure on #BTC.
Low crude = inflation relief → oxygen for risk assets.
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📅 Wednesday: FOMC Minutes (20:00)
The market will read the transcript of the July meeting.
The Fed maintained 4.25–4.50%, but there were 2 votes in favor of cuts, something that hadn't happened since 1993.
Powell was vague in his conference → the minutes will show the real degree of internal division.
👉 Dovish → yields fall, USD weakens → #Bitcoin could rebound.
👉 Hawkish → yields rise, strong USD → downward pressure on crypto.
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📅 Thursday: Jobless Claims (14:30)
Weekly jobless claims: the most immediate labor market data.
Claims rise → weak labor market → Fed closer to cutting → positive for crypto.
Claims decrease → strong market → Fed holds → negative for risk assets.
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📅 Thursday: S&P PMIs (15:45)
Leading indicators of economic activity.
> 50 = expansion
<50 = contraction
July:
Manufacturing: 49.8 (contraction, low for the year)
Services: 55.7 (7 months at a high)
Composite: 55.1 (fastest growth of 2025)
👉 If Services and Composite remain strong → Fed hawkish, yields ↑, USD ↑.
👉 If they cool down → recession on the radar → Fed dovish, positive for #Crypto.
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📅 Thursday: Existing Home Sales (16:00)
Existing home sales measure the real activity of the housing market.
Low supply keeps prices high despite lower volume → tension in the economy.
👉 Indirect impact on consumption and confidence, relevant for the liquidity cycle.
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📅 Friday: Jackson Hole – Powell's Speech (16:00)
The star event of the week.
The Jackson Hole symposium (Kansas City Fed) is known as the 'Super Bowl' of monetary policy.
👉 Scenarios:
Powell highlights slowdown → dovish → rate cuts anticipated, #BTC and altcoins bullish.
Powell warns of persistent inflation → hawkish → yields ↑, pressure on risk markets.
Historically, Powell's speeches at Jackson Hole have redefined the macro narrative for months.
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📊 Earnings (corporate earnings)
The week also brings reports from large companies:
Tuesday: Home Depot, XPeng, Opera
Wednesday: Target, Baidu, Analog Devices
Thursday: Walmart, Zoom, Intuit, Bilibili
Friday: BJ’s
👉 Reflect consumer confidence and strength in the tech sector → indirect signals for risk appetite that also impact crypto.
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🔑 Conclusion
It's not just 'a week of data'. It's the perfect combo:
Macro data (housing, employment, oil, PMIs)
Fed Minutes
Jackson Hole with Powell
Earnings of large corporations
➡️ The outcome of these events could define the course of Q3 and likely the rest of 2025.
➡️ For #Bitcoin and #Crypto, every dovish or hawkish signal will be crucial.
