📊 What We Know from the Facts:
Historically (according to CoinGecko, Coinopsy, 99Bitcoins, etc.), 50–70% of altcoins die within 5–7 years after launch.
Bull runs (2017–2018, 2020–2021) create “explosive growth” for projects, about 2/3 of which disappear within 2–3 years.
As of 2025:
CoinGecko tracks ~14,000 “live” tokens.
GeckoTerminal shows up to several million (due to memecoins and fast launches).
But truly liquid tokens traded on top exchanges number only a few hundred.
🔮 Forecast for 2030
If we extrapolate past cycles and account for “market cleansing”:
Top Exchange Coins (Top 100 on CoinMarketCap)
Survival probability: 60–70%
Reason: They have ecosystems, market capitalization, communities, and liquidity.
Examples: ETH, BNB, SOL, ADA, XRP, etc.
Middle Segment (Rank 100–1000)
Survival probability: 20–30%
Many will vanish if they fail to find real use cases.
Tail Segment (Below rank 1000, memecoins, low-liquidity tokens)
Survival probability: <5%
Likely fate: delisting, rug pulls, loss of interest.
📈 Summary Forecast (by 2030):
60–70% of all existing altcoins will disappear.
30–40% will remain, but only a small portion will be truly significant.
The market will likely focus on a few dozen blockchain platforms and infrastructure tokens, not thousands.
⚡ In other words, if there are currently ~14,000 live and tradable altcoins (according to CoinGecko), 4,000–5,000 will realistically survive by 2030, but only 200–300 projects will be “major players"
