Compiled by: Gary Ma Wu discusses blockchain

Summary
Wu discusses this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the U.S. July CPI year-on-year was lower than expected, but the core CPI rose to its highest level since February, while the July PPI year-on-year significantly exceeded market expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September; this week, key focuses include the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and the trilateral talks among the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine.

Review of last week

  • The U.S. announced a seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate of 0.2% for July, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.30%; the unadjusted year-on-year CPI for July was 2.7%, expected 2.8%, previous value 2.7%. The unadjusted core CPI year-on-year further increased to 3.1%, the highest in five months, exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%.

  • U.S. July PPI year-on-year rate is 3.3%, expected 2.5%, previous value revised from 2.30% to 2.4%. Significantly exceeding market expectation of 2.5%, the highest since February. U.S. July PPI month-on-month recorded 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022.

  • China's July M2 money supply year-on-year rate is 8.8%, expected 8.3%.

  • 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that he hopes to review more economic data before deciding whether to cut interest rates.

  • 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that if the labor market remains solid, he still believes that a rate cut in 2025 would be appropriate.

  • The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 9 is 224,000, expected 228,000, previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000.


Key events & indicators this week
August 18

  • U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks


August 20

  • New Zealand Reserve Bank announces interest rate decision (10:00)


August 21

  • Federal Reserve publishes monetary policy meeting minutes (02:00)

  • 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook (03:00)

  • U.S. initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 16 (in thousands) (20:30)

  • Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, until August 23


August 22

  • Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (22:00)

#PPI