Translated by: GaryMa Wu on Blockchain

Summary
Wu discusses this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the U.S. July CPI year-on-year was lower than expected, but core CPI rose to the highest level since February, while July PPI year-on-year significantly exceeded market expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September; this week focuses on the Fed's meeting minutes, Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks.

Last week in review

  • The U.S. reported July seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month at 0.2%, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.30%; July unadjusted CPI year-on-year at 2.7%, expected 2.8%, previous value 2.7%. July unadjusted core CPI year-on-year further increased to 3.1%, the highest in five months, exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%.

  • U.S. July PPI year-on-year at 3.3%, expected 2.5%, previous value revised from 2.30% to 2.4%. Significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5%, it is the highest since February. U.S. July PPI month-on-month recorded at 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022.

  • China's July M2 money supply year-on-year at 8.8%, expected 8.3%.

  • 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated he hopes to review more economic data before deciding whether to lower interest rates.

  • 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that if the labor market remains stable, he still believes a rate cut in 2025 is appropriate.

  • U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 at 224,000, expected 228,000, previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000.


Key events & indicators this week
August 18

  • U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks


August 20

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces interest rate decision (10:00)


August 21

  • Federal Reserve releases minutes of monetary policy meeting (02:00)

  • 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook (03:00)

  • U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 (10,000s) (20:30)

  • Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, until August 23


August 22

  • Powell to speak at Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (22:00)

#PPI