XRP has been one of the hottest stories in crypto this year. After a staggering rally from under $0.40 to above $3.00, nearly 94% of all XRP in circulation is now sitting in profit, according to Glassnode. That kind of profitability sounds like every investorâs dream, but history suggests it can also be a warning signal.
History Repeats: Profitability at Extreme Levels
When the overwhelming majority of holders are in profit, markets often find themselves at a critical turning point. For XRP, this moment has arrived before. In early 2018, the token surged to nearly $3.30 with more than 90% of supply in profit, only to collapse by over 95% in the following months. A similar pattern unfolded in 2021, when profitability levels crossed the same threshold just before XRP fell sharply from its local top. The takeaway is that extreme profitability can quickly shift from being a bullish signal to a setup for mass profit-taking.
NUPL Signals Familiar Risk
Supporting this cautionary view is XRPâs Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator. This metric tracks unrealized gains across the network and has now entered the so-called âbeliefâdenial â zone. Historically, this zone has marked moments when investors are highly confident but not yet euphoric â often the last stage before a top. We saw this in late 2017, as well as in 2021, both times followed by steep corrections. While todayâs readings donât yet suggest total euphoria, the parallels with past cycles cannot be ignored.
Technical Picture: Triangle at a Crossroads
From a technical standpoint, XRPâs chart structure is also adding weight to the cautionary narrative. The token is consolidating inside a descending triangle, with a clear horizontal support near $3.05. Repeated tests of this support level raise the risk of a breakdown, which could open the door to a move toward the $2.40 region. Such a correction would represent a decline of roughly 20% from current levels. On the other hand, if bulls manage to reclaim momentum and break above the descending resistance line, it could invalidate the bearish setup and potentially spark a rally toward $6, an outcome that some traders are still eyeing.
What Could Keep XRP Afloat
Despite these technical and on-chain warnings, XRP continues to benefit from renewed market momentum and optimism surrounding altcoins. Institutional interest and fresh inflows could act as a buffer against heavy selling pressure, especially if broader crypto sentiment remains strong. In that scenario, XRP might sustain its current levels or even extend gains, defying historical patterns.
The Road Ahead
Ultimately, XRP is standing at a familiar crossroads. On one side lies the weight of history, flashing caution as profitability levels and network metrics mirror previous market tops. On the other lies the possibility that this time could be different, with new demand keeping prices supported despite stretched indicators. For traders and investors, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether XRPâs rally has already peaked, or if the token still has room to climb higher.
