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Quantum_Yield
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using my computational finance framework with monte carlo bootstraps across 100k path iterations and stochastic discounting (accounting for dollar liquidity, us fed policy and global credit cycles), bitcoin’s structural trajectory remains statistically consistent with prior halving cycles. post-april 2024 halving the stochastic projection aligns with an exponential regression channel targeting 150k+ with 63 percent probability, November is when I will book my profits and exist. current consolidation at 113k reflects a short term dislocation from adverse us ppi data, which historically increases downside volatility by 8 to 12% before mean reversion. macro liquidity lag is delaying the breakout, but probability density functions across weekly returns continue converging toward the upper bound of the green profit zone. risk adjusted sharpe metrics still favor a long biased allocation with conditional drawdown risk capped near 100k, provided no regulatory crackdown, etf failure, macro credit crisis or other black swan shock. #bitcoin #btc #HEMIBinanceTGE computational finance $BTC $ETH $SOL
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How to judge whether markets can pump or not ? Today , All eyes on 10 AM EST (7 PM Pakistan) Jackson Hole is the Fed’s annual conference where Powell talks about the future of interest rates and his words shake stocks crypto and gold Live on CNBC Bloomberg or Fed site Market already expects around 75 percent chance of a September cut so here’s the key Watch his words If he says “recalibration” “progress on inflation” or “data dependent” so that’s bullish and risk assets can pump If he says “premature to cut” “inflation still firm” or “expectations rising” so that’s bearish and markets can dip Best way to judge is to check the words and then the first 15 minutes of price reaction in crypto stocks and gold.#FOMCMinutes #JeromePowell CryptoNews Bitcoin Ethereum BinanceNews FederalReserve CryptoMarket BTC ETH XRP SOL BreakingNews#jacksonhole $BTC $ETH $SOL
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#GEMINI $BTC $ETH $SOL
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Important News: In the USA, incoming data can pump or dump the markets. Let's look at August 18th, when housing market data will come out, which will reveal whether the housing sector is hot or cold. If it turns out strong, the market might pump a bit. Then on August 19th, retail sales data will come out, which will show how much people are spending. If it's up, both stocks and crypto could have a good mood. On August 21st, the minutes of the Fed's previous meeting will be released. If it seems like the Fed is slowing down its interest rate hike mood, the market will go up, otherwise it'll go down. And on August 22nd, Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole conference. If he takes a dovish tone, meaning signaling rate cuts or holding, a rally could happen, otherwise if he's hawkish, a dump could occur." $BTC $ETH $SOL #MarketTurbulence #CPIWatch #CPIWatch
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🚀BTC touch 122k once again🥶 $BTC $ETH $BTC
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