​Aaj Sunday ki dopahar hai. Ho sakta hai market thoda shaant lag raha ho, charts dheere-dheere chal rahe hon. Hum aksar inhi chhoti timeframes mein uljhe rehte hain - ek din, ek hafta. Lekin crypto mein ek bada khel bhi chal raha hai, ek Khel jo har chaar saal mein khud ko dohrata hai. Ise kehte hain Market Cycle.

​Agar aap is bade khel ko samajh gaye, toh aap roz-roz ke utaar-chadhav se pareshan hona band kar doge.

​Socho, market mausam ki tarah hai. Iske bhi chaar season hote hain: ek garam garmi (bull run), ek thandi sardi (bear market), ek umeed bhari basant (accumulation), aur ek anishchit patjhad (distribution). Ek naya trader sirf garmi mein paisa banana chahta hai aur sardi se darta hai. Lekin ek professional jaanta hai ki asli daulat ki neenv sardi aur basant mein hi rakhi jaati hai.

​The Four Seasons of the Market Cycle

​Har season ka apna ek alag mizaaj hota hai. Inhe pehchanna zaroori hai.

  • ​Phase 1: Accumulation (Basant - Spring) Yeh bear market ke theek baad ka daur hai. Prices lagbhag flat rehte hain, market mein koi excitement nahi hota, aur zyada tar log crypto ko bhool chuke hote hain. Yahi woh waqt hai jab 'smart money' (bade investors) chupke-chupke un logon se saste mein coins khareed rahe hote hain jinhone haar maan li hai. Yeh beej bone ka sabse aacha time hota hai.

  • ​Phase 2: Markup (Garmi - Summer / The Bull Run) Yahi woh season hai jiske liye sab jeete hain. Media mein crypto ki charcha, naye investors ki bheed, aur prices aasman ki taraf bhaagte hain. FOMO apne चरम par hota hai. Hamari pichli strategies - jaise Relative Strength aur Exit Plan - is season mein sabse behtar kaam karti hain. Yahan fasal tezi se ugti hai.

  • ​Phase 3: Distribution (Patjhad - Autumn) Yeh bull run ka peak hota hai. Prices ab bhi bohot upar hote hain, lekin naye high banane mein unhe mushkil hoti hai. Euphoria (atyadhik utsaah) ka mahaul hota hai. Ab 'smart money' apna maal un naye investors ko dheere-dheere bech raha hota hai jo FOMO mein abhi-abhi market mein aaye hain. Hawa mein khatre ki mehak hoti hai.

  • ​Phase 4: Markdown (Sardi - Winter / The Bear Market) Yahan sab kuch laal hota hai. Prices 80-90% tak crash kar jaate hain. Jo log kal tak crypto ko future bata rahe the, aaj use scam keh kar nikal jaate hain. Market se umeed khatam ho jaati hai. Yeh season sabse mushkil hota hai, lekin yahi waqt hai khud ko educate karne ka, galtiyon se seekhne ka, aur agle basant ki taiyaari karne ka.

​How to Know Which Season We Are In?

​Mausam ka haal jaanne ke liye aapko complex charts ki zaroorat nahi. Bas in aasan isharon par nazar rakho.

  • ​Aapke Dost aur Rishtedaar: Jab aapka school ka dost ya padosi aapse achanak Bitcoin kharidne ki salah maangne lage, samajh jao ki 'Garmi' (bull run) zoron par hai aur 'Patjhad' (distribution) nazdeek ho sakta hai.

  • ​Mainstream Media News: Jab TV channels aur अखबारों mein har roz crypto ki taareefein aur "lakhpati banne ki kahaniyan" aane lagein, toh satark ho jao. Yeh aksar peak ka sign hota hai. Iske vipreet, jab media crypto ko "dead" ghoshit kar de, samajh jao 'Sardi' (bear market) apne ant ke kareeb hai aur 'Basant' (accumulation) shuru hone wala hai.

  • ​Market ka Mizaaj: Kya market boring hai aur koi baat nahi kar raha? Yeh Accumulation hai. Kya har taraf josh aur excitement hai? Yeh Markup hai. Kya har taraf darr aur nafrat hai? Yeh Markdown hai.

​Become a Farmer, Not Just a Hunter

​Is poori series ka yahi saar hai. Ek shikaari (hunter) sirf agle shikaar (trade) ke baare mein sochta hai. Lekin ek kisaan (farmer) mausam ko samajhta hai. Use pata hai ki kab beej bona hai, kab paani dena hai, kab fasal kaatni hai, aur kab aaram karke agli fasal ki taiyaari karni hai.

​Humne is series mein:

  • ​Relative Strength se shikaar karna seekha.

  • ​Exit Strategy se use ghar laana seekha.

  • ​Position Sizing se apne anaaj ko manage karna seekha.

  • ​DYOR se kheti ke liye nayi zameen dhundna seekha.

  • ​Psychology se toofan mein apne darr par kaabu paana seekha.

​Yeh sab milakar aapko ek shikaari se ek samajhdaar kisaan banata hai. Crypto ek 100-meter ki race nahi, yeh ek marathon hai jo har 4 saal mein repeat hota hai. Apni fasal kaato, thoda aaram karo, aur agle season ke liye hamesha taiyaar raho.