ETH 1-hour cycle trend analysis
Technical indicator signals, Bollinger Bands (BOLL, 20 periods): Middle rail (4632.28) downwards, upper rail (4827.36) and lower rail (4437.21) converging, price (4477) running close to the lower rail, showing that short-term volatility is narrowing and the inflection point window is approaching.
Moving Average System: The 7-day moving average (4529.27) and the 30-day moving average (4665.85) are arranged in a bearish pattern, and the price is temporarily suppressed by the 7-day moving average, but the recent K-line shows signs of approaching the moving average, and the short-term bulls and bears are focused on the 4530 level. MACD indicator: DIF (-43.73) and DEA (-28.66) are still in the negative range, but the green column continues to shorten (-30.14), DIF has a trend of crossing DEA to form a golden cross, the bearish momentum is weakening, and the bulls are gradually accumulating power. KDJ indicator: K (30.95), D (30.06), J (32.74) golden cross at a low level, the indicator turns upward from the oversold area, and the short-term rebound momentum is initially revealed.
On-chain and news resonance, on-chain data shows that giant whale addresses have been continuously increasing their holdings in the 4450–4500 range recently, implying that the main force is absorbing chips at a low level; coupled with the promotion of the Ethereum "Cancun upgrade", Layer2 performance optimization expectations enhance ecological vitality, and the fundamentals and capital sides form a resonance.
Trend prediction and strategy, support and pressure, the lower rail 4437 is a key support (if lost, it will drop to 4300), and the 7-day moving average 4529 is a short-term pressure breakthrough and then look up to 4600. Operation logic: If the price rebounds relying on 4437, you can try to buy lightly, stop loss below 4400, and bet on a breakthrough of 4530; if it breaks through 4530, add positions after stepping back to confirm, and the target is to the Bollinger mid-rail 4632; if it breaks below 4437, you need to be alert to the extension of the shorts and leave the market in time to wait and see.
The current ETH is at the critical point of “end of bearishness → bull’s attempt to attack”. Driven by technical signals, capital trends and news, the rebound window has been opened, but it is necessary to be alert to the risk of market linkage.
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