Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, believes that such a price surge next year will not be a victory for cryptocurrency—but rather a warning sign for the U.S. In his latest speech, Novogratz explained that such a spike occurs only if the American economy is in turmoil, with the dollar collapsing and public debt soaring out of control. For him, a stable country with modest Bitcoin prices is far better than a sky-high valuation generated by crisis.
The Hype Around Bitcoin Worth 1 Million USD
In the cryptocurrency world, few predictions spark as much lively debate as the idea of Bitcoin reaching one million dollars. For some, this represents the recognition of Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value. However, according to Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, advocating for such a price in the near future would miss the bigger picture. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast, Novogratz warned that if Bitcoin reaches 1 million dollars next year, it could signal significant trouble for the U.S. economy rather than a resounding victory for cryptocurrency.
Stability Before Price Surge
Novogratz bluntly stated: he would rather see Bitcoin at a lower level if that meant the United States remained stable. A spike in Bitcoin prices often signals weakness in traditional financial systems, especially the U.S. dollar. When national currencies depreciate, investors flock to alternatives like gold or Bitcoin to protect their assets. He believes this movement harms civil society, often leading to inflation, social unrest, and a breakdown of trust in government institutions.
Concerns About Debt and U.S. Policy
A significant part of Novogratz's caution lies in the deteriorating picture of U.S. public debt. He points out that President Trump's appointment of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has not resulted in the financial improvements expected. Despite Bessent's intentions, the debt-to-GDP ratio continues to rise. Novogratz warns that the U.S. budget deficit is on the rise, not decreasing, adding further pressure to the economy. In this context, Bitcoin may rise quickly in price, but only as a risk hedging tool for a weakening system.
The Risks of a Bitcoin Treasury Bond Bubble
Another concern is the wave of corporations adopting Bitcoin onto their balance sheets. Novogratz revealed that Galaxy Digital currently receives about five calls a week from companies wanting to add BTC to their treasury. Although corporate adoption was once seen as a bullish signal, Novogratz stated it is beginning to resemble a frenzy. He compares it to classic bubble signals - when even taxi drivers start asking about balance sheet strategies. He is not alone. Venture capital firm Breed recently issued a warning that most Bitcoin fund managers could face a 'death spiral' if market conditions change, leaving only a few strong companies.
What Does This Really Mean for Investors?
Novogratz's comments highlight a key tension point in the cryptocurrency narrative. Bitcoin's role as 'digital gold' is most effective when it provides stability in times of turmoil, rather than when its price spikes as the economy collapses. If BTC reaches a million dollars next year, it will not be due to a sudden boom in adoption—but rather due to the dollar collapsing, public debt soaring, and trust in traditional finance evaporating. In his view, that is not a victory for cryptocurrency but a warning sign for society.
The Final Lesson
Novogratz's warning is a reminder that Bitcoin's strength is tied to the financial system at large, not separate from it. For long-term believers, gradual and stable adoption supported by a healthy global economy will be far more sustainable than a sudden price surge due to crisis. A Bitcoin worth millions of dollars could stir public opinion, but if it happens in 2026, then perhaps America will be in a position that no investor should celebrate.
