BTC Trend Analysis on August 17, 2025

Bitcoin $BTC is currently oscillating around $117,600, with short-term trends showing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Here is the key trend analysis:

1. Short-term Price Fluctuations and Key Support/Resistance Levels

- Support Level: $116,500 (200 EMA and recent low), if broken, may drop to $113,500 or even $112,300.

- Resistance Level: $119,300 (Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level), breaking this may test $122,500 (recent high).

- Consolidation Range: Current price fluctuates between $116,500 and $119,300, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing indicating an impending directional breakout.

2. Technical Indicator Signals

- RSI (Daily): 55, neutral to weak, indicating a market wait-and-see sentiment.

- MACD (4-hour): Bears dominate, but no obvious bottom divergence signal has appeared.

- Moving Average System: EMA7 and EMA30 have formed a death cross, suppressing price rebounds in the short term.

3. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow

- Institutional Holdings: Institutions such as BlackRock are still increasing their positions, but short-term capital has flowed out by $47.1M, reflecting some profit-taking.

- Leverage Liquidation: Recent price declines have led to over $100 million in leveraged positions being liquidated, placing short-term pressure on the market.

4. Macroeconomic Factors Impact

- Inflation Data: U.S. PPI exceeded expectations (3% YoY), which may affect Federal Reserve policy expectations and suppress risk asset performance.

- Seasonal Trend: Historical data shows that after a rise in August, a pullback may occur in September, requiring caution regarding short-term adjustment risks.

5. Operational Strategy Recommendations

- Short-term: If it stabilizes above $116,500, consider attempting a light long position targeting $119,300; if it drops below, wait or short to $113,500.

- Medium to Long-term: If it breaks $122,500, it may initiate a new round of increases, targeting $124,500 to $127,000.

(The weekend market should rest calmly, wait until Monday when U.S. stocks open to decide whether to operate!)