BitMEX co-founder says $BTC can hit $250K in 2025 – here’s what I really think with pure logic, no hype

When I was going through btc updates a few weeks back, I came across an article where BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted bitcoin could touch $250k in 2025. it instantly caught my eye because bold calls like that always spark debate, and since then I’ve seen a lot of people confused about what’s actually possible for btc in this cycle. that’s why I decided to share my own view here — not hype, not buzz, just market logic and a realistic outlook

to hit $250k, $BTC would need a market cap above $5 trillion. that would require inflows at a scale we don’t see yet. yes, etfs and institutions are buying, but not fast enough for such a parabolic move in one cycle. past halvings also show diminishing returns — in 2017 btc jumped 20x, in 2021 closer to 6x. from the $16k bottom, a 7–9x move points more toward $110k–$150k, with $175k possible if momentum stays strong.

that’s why I believe $150k–$175k is a more realistic peak, and $110k–$130k a healthy zone if the market cools. it’s still massive growth without overheating.

what do you think — is hayes right with his $250k call, or does my range feel closer to where btc is really heading?