Peter Brandt claims that there is a 30% chance that the current bullish cycle has already reached its peak. If this scenario is confirmed, he projects that the price could retrace to a range of between 60,000 dollars and 70,000 dollars before November 2026.
According to his proposal, this retracement would not represent the end of Bitcoin's long-term positive behavior, as he later estimates that a new bullish impulse could occur, capable of driving the asset up to 500,000 dollars.
"I believe there is a 30% chance that BTC has reached its peak in this bullish cycle. The next stop will again be between 60,000 and 70,000 USD by November 2026, and then the next bullish impulse up to 500,000 USD," Peter Brandt stated on X in response to The_JDK99.
If the retracement scenario is validated, the drop would represent between 40% and 50% from current prices, levels that in previous cycles have been accumulation zones.
In general, macroeconomic factors such as the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the evolution of flows into Bitcoin ETFs, and the behavior of other large-cap cryptocurrencies could decisively influence the trajectory of the leading cryptocurrency in the coming months and years.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a critical technical phase. A clear breakthrough of strategic resistances could drive a new bullish leg, while the loss of relevant supports would increase the likelihood of a significant correction.
For Brandt, this analysis is not limited to one-directional projections but rather to a mental structure based on conditioned probability. When questioned by a Bitcoin maximalist, Brandt reaffirmed his Bayesian stance.
"People complain: 'Why highlight the 30%?' Dear readers, I am Bayesian and must always consider binary narratives, even if they oppose my personal views and investment actions. This is how I have survived five decades in commodity trading," Brandt stated.
This methodology involves assigning a probabilistic weight to each hypothesis and adjusting it as new technical and macroeconomic data emerges. In this sense, constant monitoring of key levels and external events becomes an essential tool for anticipating Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months.
For Brandt, the analysis of Bitcoin must be dynamic and adaptive, constantly updating the probabilities assigned to each hypothesis as the market provides new data.
His approach does not seek to predict with certainty a single outcome but rather to establish a probabilistic framework that allows for a coherent interpretation of changes in the asset's behavior over time.
As a relevant fact, the renowned analyst projected last October that the price of BTC could reach 135,000 dollars between August and September 2025. After Bitcoin's ATH above 124,000 dollars, this goal seems to be getting closer. Will Brandt's prediction for next year come true? Only time will tell.
