🚀 Market Decoding: Bitcoin Supply Model Reveals Current Stage

Bitcoin has just slipped from its historical peak of $124,000 down to $117,000, casting a dark shadow over the entire market. Amid increasing selling pressure, BTC supply data is clearly reflecting the sentiment and behavior of investors.

🔎 What is happening?

According to on-chain analysis by Boris, the difference between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) is becoming evident:

• LTH has reduced their holdings from 15.50M BTC → 15.28M BTC, indicating a trend of profit-taking after the peak.

• STH, on the other hand, has increased from 4.38M BTC → 4.61M BTC, proving they are taking on more risk, riding short-term waves.

📉 Significance of this shift

The market is entering an important “stress test” after the peak. LTH are selling off, ensuring safety in profit-taking; while STH are holding firm and even accumulating more. This contrast reflects a divided belief: can Bitcoin maintain its value and momentum after the record breakout?

📊 Glassnode reports: the profit/loss measurement parameter has quickly recovered after dropping to neutral levels. This indicates that new investors remain steadfast, ready to hold around the cost basis of ~$112,000.

➡️ In summary, BTC is in a period of endurance testing: long-term holders are withdrawing, while short-term holders are stepping in. This could be a crucial test to determine whether Bitcoin is merely undergoing a short-term correction or opening up a new growth cycle.