PANews reported on August 16 that mixed signals from US economic data over the past week have led to continued fluctuations in market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Data released on Friday showed a surprising decline in consumer confidence, the first drop since April, along with rising inflation expectations. Amid ongoing speculation about the Fed resuming rate cuts, the dollar index fell for the second consecutive week, retreating below the 98 level. US Treasury yields generally rose due to inflation concerns, with long-term yields leading the way, as the 10-year Treasury yield reached a two-week high. Investors will turn their attention next week to the annual policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed policymakers will meet, looking for clues about the rate cut path. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:
On Wednesday at 11:00 PM, Fed Governor Waller will speak at a blockchain symposium in Wyoming;
On Thursday at 2:00 AM, the Fed will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting;
On Thursday at 3:00 PM, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the economic outlook;
On Thursday at 8:30 PM, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16;
On Friday at 10:00 PM, Fed Chair Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
Next week, the PMI data from Europe and the US will provide more clues on how Trump's tariffs are impacting the economy. HSBC analysts stated in a report, 'Now that reciprocal tariffs have come into effect, the input costs part of the PMI survey, especially in the US, should initially feel the impact of the tariff increases on prices.'