In the trading market, judging bullish or bearish trends often depends more on capital flow and market conditions rather than the merits of the project itself.

Taking ALPINE as an example, it serves as a fan token and does have certain application scenarios and community value, but from a short-term trading perspective, the logic for shorting is more reasonable.

First, the price fluctuations of fan tokens usually rely on the promotion of sports events and official activities. Currently, there is a lack of significant news stimulation, market enthusiasm is relatively flat, capital participation is declining, and there is insufficient upward momentum in prices.

Second, compared to mainstream cryptocurrencies, ALPINE has limited liquidity and a high concentration of chips. In the absence of sustained buying support, the risk of a downturn is relatively greater. Meanwhile, recent capital has been more inclined to flow into mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and this diversion effect has also put some pressure on ALPINE.

Third, this does not mean that the project itself has no value. Once a major event or official positive news occurs, it may still bring capital back and lead to a short-term rebound. Therefore, shorting is more based on a phase-based market judgment rather than a denial of the token itself.

Overall, in the current environment, the probability of a downturn for ALPINE is greater than the opportunity for an upturn, and shorting aligns better with the risk-reward ratio. However, it is still necessary to remain rational in operations, control positions, and pay attention to changes in news, avoiding one-sided thinking.