Bloody tug-of-war! The life-and-death line for ETH at $4700 is exposed, and the suspense of the Federal Reserve's rate cut ignites the crypto space!
Brothers in the crypto space! ETH is currently consolidating around $4470, but undercurrents are already stirring—The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has soared to 91.5%, this policy shift may directly ignite the next round of ETH surge!
Technical life-and-death game: Is $4700 heaven or hell?
From the daily chart, ETH has been crazily oscillating in the $4365-$4700 range recently, and the Fibonacci retracement indicates that $4703 (78.6%) is a key resistance level! More critically, the price has broken below the yellow moving average, and the short-term trend is bearish. If it cannot quickly recover the moving average, the $4365 support level may face a bloody wash!
But don't panic! On-chain data reveals institutional cards: BlackRock holds over 3 million ETH, spot ETFs have seen 18 consecutive days of net inflows, and 24-hour trading volume surged to $23.7 billion, MACD bullish momentum is building up! Once it breaks $4703, ETH will aim directly for the historical high of $5000!
Federal Reserve policy sudden change: Will it cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points?
The market originally expected an 81% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but the latest data has completely exploded expectations! The US non-farm payrolls in July only increased by 73,000, far below expectations; manufacturing PMI fell to 48, a new low for the year! Even crazier, Trump-nominated Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman publicly stated: We must cut rates in September!
At this moment, CME futures show a 91.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and even an 11% probability of a 50 basis point cut! If the Federal Reserve chooses aggressive rate cuts, the dollar index will crash, and the crypto market will welcome an epic liquidity flood!
Bloody warning: Institutions have laid out their strategies, how can retail investors survive?
Beware! The crypto fear and greed index plummeted from 75 points to 27 points in a single day, with over 210,000 liquidations in 24 hours, amounting to $1.047 billion! But smart money is buying against the trend:
The SocialFi sector rose against the trend by 1.65%, MEET48 votes consumed over 48 million IDOL, fan economy holds the banner high!
KOL hedging strategy exposed: Long ETH + Short altcoins, only 20 tokens outperformed ETH in 30 days, is the altcoin season completely over?
Critical moment: Three signals that ETH must break $5000!
Federal Reserve rate cut cycle starts: Historical data shows that after the 2007 rate cut, the dollar plummeted by 8%, and ETH as a risk asset will benefit first!
Institutional funds are flooding in: BlackRock net purchased $2.8 billion in 7 days, ETH spot ETF becomes the largest ammunition depot!
Technical double bottom structure: The price has tested $4365 twice without breaking, MACD golden cross is imminent, the bull counterattack horn has sounded!
ETH's technical face-off: $4700 is the lifeline for bulls and bears! If the $4703 resistance level is broken, the MACD golden cross will ignite a bull counterattack, with $5000 within reach; if it loses the $4365 support. At this moment, the tearing between technical and capital aspects is the watershed for sudden wealth or liquidation!
Now, check your positions immediately!
ETH is gaining momentum at the $4700 mark, and the suspense of the Federal Reserve policy is about to be revealed. Is it betting on a rate cut surge or waiting for a dip to buy? The crypto space has no mercy, only the survival rules of blood and fire!
I am the candlestick judge, focusing on market analysis and practical strategies in the crypto space, speaking through candlesticks! Follow me and don't get lost, let's gain market insight together! #加密市场回调 #ETH