"Inflation data is the ultimate liquidator of the crypto market! Last night's 300-point waterfall in ETH was just the first drop of blood in the Fed's interest rate hike script!"

What happened last night? A 'data hunting ground' with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears

Last night at 10 PM, when the US inflation expectation stabilized at 4.9%, the ETH price plummeted from $4580, falling 300 points to $4364 within 6 hours, with over $520 million in liquidations across the network—this is not just a simple technical correction, but a 'precise strike' by macro data on the crypto market.

Core logic chain breakdown:

  1. PPI data early warning: The PPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year two days ago (exceeding expectations by 0.6%), indicating inflation stickiness;

  2. Inflation expectations become the trigger: A 4.9% inflation expectation directly crushes market fantasies of the Fed's rate cuts in September. In a high-interest-rate environment, liquidity in the crypto market is continuously drained;

  3. Technical adjustment: $4500 is both a historical accumulation zone and the resistance level of the 4-hour MA30 moving average, where bears have laid a 'net trap'.

Current battlefield: The 'life and death chess game' at $4500

As of 10 AM, ETH rebounded to around $4470, but both bulls and bears are still in fierce confrontation at the $4500 mark.

Bearish iron triangle:

  1. Historical accumulation graveyard: The $4500-$4580 range is stacked with over $830 million in short positions;

  2. Technical pressure: The 4-hour MA30 moving average and the daily Bollinger middle band form double resistance;

  3. Psychological threshold: $4500 is the 50% retracement level of this rebound. If the bulls lose this level, it will trigger a chain reaction of stop-loss orders.

Bullish lifeline:

  • Spot ETF fund flow: BlackRock's ETH ETF had a net inflow of $120 million yesterday, indicating that institutions are still accumulating at low levels;

  • On-chain data: Whale addresses increased their holdings by 17,000 ETH in the past 24 hours, with an average cost of $4420.

Today's battle map: Data-driven 'high sell, low buy'

Plan 1: Bearish dominance (below $4500)

  • Entry point: Gradually short at $4480-$4500, stop loss at $4520;

  • Target level: First target $4450, second target $4360 (strong support);

  • Risk control: If the price breaks through $4520 with volume, immediately go long.

Plan 2: Bullish counterattack (effective breakthrough of $4500)

  • Entry point: After stabilizing above $4500, lightly chase longs, stop loss at $4460;

  • Target level: $4580 → $4630;

Black swan warning:

  • 22:30 US natural gas inventory: If the data exceeds expectations (implying a resurgence of energy inflation), it may trigger a correlated decline in the crypto market and commodities;

  • On-chain movements: Monitor whether whale addresses like 0xAaf are transferring large amounts of ETH to exchanges

Those who go against the trend will perish, while those who follow the trend will thrive! In the current environment with the Fed's dovish and hawkish sword hanging high, blindly bottom-fishing is like catching flying knives with empty hands. Keep a close eye on the $4500 battle; let the market tell you the direction!#比特币财库公司增持策略