The market trades on 'expectations'; funds move faster than news!
1. Interest rate cut expectations have become clear: Although the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, the June inflation data has cooled (CPI dropped to 3%), and the Fed's dot plot indicates 'a possible rate cut this year', prompting the market to raise the probability of a rate cut in September to over 80%. The cryptocurrency market is essentially an 'expectation market'—as long as it is known that the faucet is about to be turned on, funds are willing to enter early.
2. Ethereum ETF adds fuel to the fire: In May, the U.S. suddenly approved the Ethereum spot ETF (although it has not yet been listed), which is equivalent to giving the market a strong shot in the arm. Referencing the historical $30 billion influx after the Bitcoin ETF was listed in January this year, funds are gambling heavily that large whales will enter the market after the Ethereum ETF is launched. A certain positive development is worth ten speculations.
3. Real money is entering the market: - Stablecoins surge: The total market value of on-chain USDT + USDC has exceeded $140 billion (a nearly two-year high), indicating that off-market funds have been converted into 'bullets' ready to fire. - Bitcoin ETF continuously attracts capital: Even with Bitcoin stagnating, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of $5 billion in the past month, as large institutions secretly accumulate.
4. Bitcoin 'halving' aftereffects kick in: In April, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving (new coin production halved), and historical patterns show that a bull market is likely to begin 3-6 months after halving. This halving coincides with expectations of interest rate cuts, creating a double boost that ignites the market.
5. Retail sentiment has completely reversed: At the beginning of the year, everyone was afraid of a crash, but now the 'Fear and Greed Index' has surged into the extreme greed zone. Social media discussions have tripled, and new users on exchanges have skyrocketed—when the aunt tells you to buy coins, the bull market has already advanced halfway. Summary of key logic: The market is like a hungry wolf eyeing meat: it sees the signal of 'inflation cooling → interest rate cut in September', smells the 'Ethereum ETF' as a fat piece of meat, and adds the Bitcoin halving cycle, igniting an early bull market. Remember: the cryptocurrency market always trades on expectations! By the time the actual rate cut happens, smart money may have already prepared to withdraw.
