August 15, 2025.

Greed index in the US market is 63°, and greed index in the cryptocurrency market is 60°.

The market corrected a bit last night, but this seems normal. Even in a bull market, there are no rises without falls.

The current market has much smaller fluctuations than the last bull market.

However, one commonality is that the later it gets in a bull market, the larger the fluctuations, and those with higher stakes find it harder to hold on.

Bull markets often experience sharp declines (frequent fluctuations).

Although fluctuations happen quickly, rallies can sometimes be even faster. Some people get shaken out before they even have a chance to react, only to be thrown off again.

For instance, a drop of 15% in one week followed by a surge of 30% the next week.

A drop of 10% in one day followed by a surge of 20% the next day.

This phenomenon will be very common in the later stages of a bull market.

Various news may have some impact on the market, but the effect is destined to be short-lived; the market will quickly return to the main trend.

In the end, a bull market will still meet its demise amidst everyone's revelry.

Two days ago (2025.8.14) reading notes and reflections:

Those who do not understand human nature will never win.

You must have unique thoughts and feelings; your ideas must be alternative, and your feelings must be contrary to the mainstream.

Reaching a consensus with others is very dangerous.

The market has generated a bubble, which poses a far greater risk than black swans, as black swans only cause short-term localized declines.

Once the bubble bursts, it will reverse into a long-term bear market.

When the general direction is a bull market, no amount of bad news can prevent a rising trend. Conversely, no amount of good news can stop a bear market.

In the face of major bull and bear cycles, many good news are insignificant.

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