#加密市场回调 Federal Reserve Policy Shift's Long-term Impact on the Crypto Market

Structural Changes in Funding: Large-scale Institutional Inflows

1. Trump allows 401(k) retirement funds to invest in cryptocurrencies; even if 1% of the $12.5 trillion asset pool is allocated to crypto assets (like Bitcoin ETFs), there would be hundreds of billions of incremental funds supporting prices.

2. Banks and asset management companies are adjusting service restrictions to promote compliant crypto products to attract conservative funds.

Optimized Policy Environment: Regulatory Framework Becoming Clearer

1. The "Genius Act" will take effect in July 2025, increasing transparency of stablecoin reserves and bringing crypto activities under regular regulation to reduce uncertainty.

2. New council member Stephen Milan has an open attitude, which may promote the integration of SEC and CFTC jurisdiction to improve the compliance environment.

Market Ecosystem Reshaping: Risks and Opportunities Coexist

1. 95% probability of interest rate cuts in September, with devaluation of the dollar leading to capital inflow into the crypto market, enhancing liquidity; however, the policy shift may also amplify volatility, as seen in December 2024 when Bitcoin dropped 4.6% in a single day after a rate cut.

2. Bitcoin entering retirement accounts changes its asset status from high-risk to being part of a configurable institutional level; however, small and medium banks face high technology investment and compliance costs, leading to potential systemic risks due to regulatory lag.

3. The integration of traditional finance and DeFi accelerates technological innovation, providing growth opportunities in cross-border payments and stablecoin infrastructure; however, geopolitical issues such as high tariffs and economic recession concerns weaken risk appetite for funds.

Long-term Trend Outlook

1. 401(k) policy positions crypto assets as part of retirement allocations, increasing institutional holdings, and market capitalization is expected to reach new highs (currently $4.2 trillion).

2. The correlation coefficient between crypto assets and dollar liquidity is -0.73, indicating excess returns can be obtained during interest rate cut cycles.

3. Leading compliant institutions dominate the market, with underperforming projects being eliminated, resulting in increased industry concentration.

#Investor Strategy# In the short term, focus on the September monetary policy meeting to capture liquidity bonuses; in the long term, align with compliant Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs while being cautious of risks from small and medium crypto banks; use options tools to hedge against policy volatility. The Federal Reserve's policy shift is a critical turning point for the crypto market from the fringe to financial infrastructure, enhancing long-term market resilience, but be wary of transitional volatility.