#MarketTurbulence Trading firm QCP Capital released a new report analyzing the impact of hot inflation data in the U.S. on global markets and cryptocurrencies. The producer price index (PPI) surged month-on-month to 0.9% against an expected 0.2%, and year-on-year reached 3.3% versus a forecast of 2.5%.
The unexpected jump in inflation is changing the landscape in the markets
Data showed that inflationary pressure from tariffs is being passed on to consumers faster than analysts expected. This increases the risk of premature price growth in the U.S. economy. The dollar strengthened amid the publication, and Treasury yields rose — two-year notes gained 6 basis points to 3.738%. Gold fell in price, while U.S. stocks held steady at previous levels.
The rise in bond yields reflects a stable economic dynamic. Earlier this week, the consumer price index (CPI) data supported bets on a more aggressive rate cut by the Fed in September, but the hot PPI almost ruled out the possibility of a 50 basis point cut. Now, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 92%.
Bitcoin is undergoing a healthy correction
There have been developments in the cryptocurrency market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that there are no plans to sell confiscated bitcoins or make large-scale purchases in the near future. Bitcoin retreated from highs of around $124,000 to $117,000, then stabilized around $119,000.
Risk reversal indicators have shifted towards puts, indicating investor caution. Volatility decreased during Asian trading hours following the PPI data release, suggesting that the decline was likely a brief repositioning of positions. Bitcoin's dominance fell from 63% to 59%, hinting at a possible start of rotation into altcoins.
The upward trend remains unchanged
Despite macroeconomic pressure, the upward trend in cryptocurrencies that began in April remains unchanged. QCP Capital sees support for this momentum in growing corporate adoption — whether through payment integration, balance sheet holdings, or speculative positioning.
The firm's analysts note that the current decline is a healthy correction after significant growth. Fundamental factors supporting cryptocurrencies continue to work, despite short-term macroeconomic fluctuations. Institutional interest in digital assets remains high.