#MarketTurbulence ### Bitcoin's Situation on August 15, 2025

1. **Price Volatility**:

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of **$124,436** early on August 15 but plunged over **4%** to **$117,600** by late afternoon. This drop filled the weekend "gap" in CME futures charts, a technical pattern tied to market-hour discrepancies .

2. **Key Drivers**:

- **Economic Data**: Unexpectedly high U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation (**0.9% vs. 0.2% forecast**) fueled concerns about delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, pressuring crypto and traditional markets .

- **Policy Uncertainty**: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the U.S. would **not expand its $15B–$20B bitcoin reserves**, contradicting earlier market optimism about government adoption under the Trump administration .

3. **Technical Resilience**:

The 7% pullback from the peak is Bitcoin's **smallest 2025 correction** (down from 30% in January), suggesting stronger market support. Analysts note critical technical confluences near **$117,600**, including the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a rising trendline .

4. **Market Context**:

- **Regulatory Shifts**: Democratic-led states like New York are tightening crypto regulations, exemplified by a lawsuit against **Zelle** for fraud oversight .

- **Institutional Moves**: Upcoming **$12B bitcoin options expiry** (August 31) and record-high open interest (**$32.5B**) indicate heightened derivatives activity, with calls concentrated at **$120K–$124K** .