Even though the cryptocurrency market is at record highs, many traders still wonder what will happen next. Key questions arise: When will Bitcoin peak? When will Ethereum peak? And when will Altseason really begin?

According to Ciclop's analysis – a seasoned investor with 8 years of experience and over 6 million USD in profit – market history shows that the structure of crypto bull cycles has remained almost unchanged over the past decade. However, the larger market size and participation of financial institutions may make this cycle's late stage different.

Lessons from Previous Cycles

Ciclop has studied over 13 hours of data from previous cycles and drawn a clear rule:

  • In 2017: Bitcoin surged from April to mid-December, peaking on December 17. After that, BTC Dominance quickly dropped, opening up an Altseason lasting about 1 month, peaking in January 2018, before the market collapsed.

  • In 2021: Bitcoin rose from May and peaked on November 10. BTC Dominance fell from 70% to 38%, creating an opportunity for altcoins to explode over 28 days, before all plunged in December.

Common point: Bitcoin peaks → Ethereum and large-cap coins continue to rise for a short period → Altseason lasts about 30–40 days → the market collapses sharply.

Current Cycle: Scenarios May Repeat

According to Ciclop, the market is currently showing similar signs:

  1. Bitcoin will soon reach a new peak.

  2. Ethereum could peak in the next month.

  3. Altseason lasts about 20–40 days, potentially falling into the December – January period.

Will the Crash Be as Severe as Before?

In previous cycles, Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped 70–80% from their peaks. This time, Ciclop predicts the drop could be lighter – about 60% – due to the larger market size and strong participation from institutions.

However:

  • Large-cap altcoins still risk dropping 90% as they did before.

  • Events like "black swan" incidents such as significant exchange crashes or major project failures can still cause prices to drop faster.

As Ciclop warns:

"When everything seems to be at its best, that's when we start to decline – and if bad news hits, the fall will be even faster."

Personal Strategy: Sell When Prices Are Rising

Ciclop has sold 30% of the Ethereum he holds, believing that the current risk/reward ratio is unattractive.
His plan:

  • Gradually divesting from now until November–December, as history shows this is the time when Bitcoin's upward trend ends and the altcoin peak begins.

The message he sends to traders:

"No one can sell everything at the peak. Sell when the price is rising, because when it starts to drop, you won't be able to."

Lessons for New Investors

If entering the market at this stage, Ciclop advises focusing on 3 things:

  1. Plan your profit-taking clearly – do not let emotions take control.

  2. Choose the right altcoin for the late stage of the cycle.

  3. Follow reputable information sources and always manage risk.

⏳ Conclusion: If history repeats itself, Bitcoin and Ethereum could peak before the end of the year, followed by a brief explosive Altseason. Although the upcoming decline may be lighter than before, for those without an exit strategy, the likelihood of 'drifting' with the market to the bottom is high.