Next Friday (August 22 at 10 PM Beijing time) all eyes are on Powell! This Fed chief is going to speak at the Jackson Hole meeting, and the global market's heartbeat has skyrocketed to 180 — on one side tariffs are pushing prices up high (July PPI wholesale prices surged 0.9% 📈), while on the other side the job market is shivering cold, the economy seems to be jumping back and forth between ice and fire.

Morgan Stanley issued a warning overnight: Uncle Powell will definitely be the 'expectation killer' this time! Isn't the market crazily betting on a 50 basis point rate cut in September? He will likely pour cold water on that, leaving a crack for a maximum of 25 basis points moderate cut. What's worse is that he might even be ambiguous about the rate cut — because whatever he says, the market might collapse in front of you.

Can you guess what’s the most thrilling part? Even 'not speaking' is a thunder! Lying flat without explanation = defaulting market expectations are wrong, Wall Street immediately performs a high-altitude dive for you. As soon as the PPI data was released yesterday, the probability of a September rate cut dropped from 100% to 85%, and traders lamented: 'We are right on the crater of stagflation!'

And Trump is still stabbing in the back: while frantically urging interest rate cuts, he is secretly looking for new candidates, clearly threatening Powell to 'get lost when the term expires in May next year'. The Fed is about to be torn apart by politics!

In the past, at such times, gold and the dollar would have gone wild. But this time, veteran crypto players are actually sneaking in their positions:

Interest rate cut expectations = liquidity signal: even 25 basis points, hot money will find new exits, Bitcoin's 'anti-inflation narrative' suddenly becomes appealing;

In the panic of stagflation: when stocks and bonds become scared birds, BTC becomes the 'alternative hedge', after all, the total amount is locked and not afraid of the printing press;

Trump's interference assistance: the higher the policy uncertainty, the more decentralized assets are seen as safe havens, and the black swan of an election year may allow Bitcoin to launch a surprise attack!

But watch out for traps 🕳️ — if Powell is excessively hawkish (for example, hints at no rate cut), risk assets will crash instantly, and the crypto market will have to go down with it!

What should we keep an eye on now?

1️⃣ August 30 PCE Inflation Data: The Fed's mother indicator, deadlier than CPI;

2️⃣ Trump's Mouth: If he escalates tariff threats, the stagflation bomb will detonate directly 💣;

3️⃣ Crypto Circle On-chain Data: If institutional wallets suddenly increase their holdings, don’t hesitate, follow them!

In this 'silent game' of Powell, only those who understand how to bet on divergences can win big. Buckle up, next week the financial market is bound to be a battlefield! $SOL $ETH $XRP #美国7月PPI年率高于预期 #加密市场回调 #机构疯抢以太坊