Global liquidity is climbing and signs point to a likely Fed rate cut in September—creating a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin, which continues to show resilient fundamentals amid slowing growth and mixed macro data.
Global liquidity is up ~5% since April and at a cycle high, leading $BTC by ~110 days, while markets assign nearly an 80% probability of a September rate cut.
Macro indicators like sub‑50 PMI and 1.1M downward revisions in payroll estimates since 2022 suggest economic softening that may prompt the Fed to begin easing.
Market sentiment is cautious short-term but bullish long-term—credit spreads are tight, stablecoin issuance is rising, and Bitcoin fundamentals remain constructive.
On‑chain metrics are strong: ~85% of $BTC BTC supply is held by long-term wallets, exchange balances are shrinking, MVRV stands at ~2.5, Puell Multiple at ~1.3, and SOPR above 1—pointing to low sell pressure and potential upside.