【The Federal Reserve's September Rate Hike Pause Signals Are Clear, Timing of Rate Cuts Still Divided】

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting indicate:

1️⃣ Interest Rate Policy: All members support maintaining

5.25%-5.5% unchanged, believing that inflation risks still need to be monitored;

2️⃣ Future Path: Most officials support a "higher for longer" interest rate stance, with a high probability of pausing rate hikes in September;

3️⃣ Economic Forecast: Raised the 2023 GDP growth expectation to 1.8% (previously 1.0%), and lowered the unemployment rate expectation to 3.9%;

4️⃣ Inflation Discrepancy: Some officials warn that rising energy prices may reverse the trend of falling inflation;

5️⃣ Market Impact: US Treasury yields have climbed to 4.3%, and the dollar index has reached a two-month high.