Altcoins are heating up as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, and even some memecoins are experiencing strong growth. Consequently, the crypto community is starting to buzz again. Many believe that the 'altcoin season' has finally arrived. But the numbers suggest it is not yet the time.
Let's analyze the actual data to see why this might still just be the 'starting' phase and not the main event.
Money flow is starting to rotate, but ETH is still not leading.
The altcoin season index just hit 51, up from below 40 a few weeks ago. This number is very important. It measures how many of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. If this index exceeds 75, then it would mean a real altcoin season is underway.
At 51, we have surpassed the mid-threshold but are still quite far from a confirming signal.
Moreover, Bitcoin's dominance index has dropped from 65% to 58.9% over the past month. This means that traders are reallocating funds from BTC to altcoins. This is one of the first signs that an altcoin season may be starting.
But the issue is that ETH is not the leading coin in this shift. ETH's dominance ratio remains below 15%, much lower than the peak of 22.5% in 2024. In fact, when comparing the ETH chart with BTC, this pair is still moving sideways, not breaking out. Additionally, at the time of writing, BTC has just hit a new all-time high, while ETH and SOL are still lagging behind.
This is important because an altcoin season often starts when ETH strengthens against BTC. Currently, ETH is just barely keeping up. Until ETH's dominance index increases, this rally is not convincing enough.
OI is rising, but so is the risk.
The total open interest in altcoins (OI) has now reached 47.01 billion dollars — the highest level since November 2021, the previous peak of excitement.
OI is the number of futures contracts that have not been settled. When this index rises quickly, it indicates that more and more traders are betting on a price increase.
But there is one detail that changes the picture.
Nearly half of this OI comes from ETH alone, over 23.6 billion dollars. This is a positive signal, but as seen, the price action of ETH is still not truly attractive. Therefore, much of this interest may only be passive exposure or positions opened early.
Solana (SOL) ranks second with 7.4 billion dollars, followed by XRP with 3.9 billion dollars. Other coins like AVAX, DOGE, LINK, and BNB make up the rest.
This shows us two things: traders are focusing on large-cap coins and small-cap groups have not yet 'joined the party.'
High OI means leverage is being used more. If the price suddenly drops, the likelihood of large liquidations is very high. This is a clear risk. Until ETH breaks out, this leverage could quickly become an enemy rather than an ally.
The altcoin season sentiment is forming, but has not peaked yet.
Another important signal is Google Trends. The search volume for the phrase 'altcoin season' is increasing again, especially in the past 7 days. However, this level of interest is still lower than the peak in 2021, at least in terms of search volume.
It should be noted that by 2025, the number of altcoins has increased significantly, so to show the same level of excitement as before, this interest index will need to be much higher.
The crypto community is very excited. There are numerous posts on X proclaiming 'altseason has arrived.' Top traders are continuously sharing charts, skyrocketing OI data, and the reversal of the dominance index.
But the real market excitement has not yet appeared. This is clearly shown through the subdued interest from retail investors and the slow movement of the ETH/BTC pair.
Moreover, the altcoin season index is still quite far from the 75 mark — the level that indicates 75% of top altcoins outperform Bitcoin. Until this threshold is reached, the market is still in the 'pre-season' phase.
That is why traders remain cautious, especially when there are too many positions using high leverage.
Data shows that altcoins are gradually regaining their position, slow but steady. Bitcoin's dominance ratio is decreasing. Altcoin OI is rising sharply. Traders are excited again.
But ETH is not the leading coin. ETH/BTC is still moving sideways. And the altcoin season index is only at 51 — not enough to confirm a real altcoin season.
