#HotJulyPPI

Absolutely! It looks like you’d like to dive into the July PPI (“Producer Price Index”), which was notably hot—meaning significantly higher than expected.

What Is the PPI?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It's a gauge of inflation at the wholesale level—it captures what producers are charging, not what consumers pay.

Highlights from July 2025 PPI Report

Headline Numbers

Monthly (seasonally adjusted): PPI jumped 0.9%, following a flat June.

Year-over-year (not seasonally adjusted): A 3.3% increase—the biggest 12-month jump since February 2025.

Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services)

Monthly: Risen 0.6%, the largest since March 2022.

Year-over-year: Climbed to 2.8%.

Why This Matters: Implications of the Hot PPI

Inflation Pressures are Back

The unexpectedly strong PPI signals persistent inflationary momentum, especially concerning because it precedes what consumers will eventually feel.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Impacted

The odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September have diminished—markets now see far less chance of a 50-basis-point cut, and even a 25-point cut looks less likely.

Market Reactions

U.S. dollar strengthened.

Yields on Treasuries rose.

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin dipped (e.g., below $120,000).