8.15 Market Analysis

First of all, the market movement in the early hours of today did not meet expectations. I will do a review on this, which can be seen as a suggestion for consideration.

Bitcoin: On the evening of the 13th, a strong JOC was used to drive the market up, but we were not in the position. The direction was certainly correct, breaking through new highs and above 125,000. This was a misjudgment; we just didn’t chase the market price because I need to be responsible for everyone. It was not a good area to take losses. Yesterday afternoon, a large bullish candlestick made me doubt life. This had almost no relation to technical aspects; it was simply because the position was too heavy. Such situations can occur, but 80% of people believe that new highs will emerge and need to clear some positions first. I believe that at that time yesterday, 70-80% of people had already exited. Some may continue to increase their positions. Compared to before, there’s definitely 30% less in the market now, and this ratio should hold. We are within that 30%. Four hours of four large bearish candlesticks falling, with long lower shadows, prove that after selling, someone immediately took over; the buying power is still there. In hindsight, two bullish candles, and including around 4 PM, there could also be a bullish close. This subjective judgment could very well be panic selling, and it is not yet time to escape the peak. The one-hour price resonates with Vegas, and after touching the upper band on the four-hour chart, it immediately rebounded, showing strong support at 117,000. However, current long positions are not considered nearby. From all stages observed so far, 125,300 will come eventually; this is what I said, and you can mark it ❗ This will also serve as our target for taking profits on long positions. If I open a position and it is not urgent, I will synchronize it in the plaza.

Ethereum: Yesterday, it dropped more than 300 points. This situation is somewhat reminiscent of the market behavior at the end of last month, dropping from around 4000 to 3350. Everyone is firmly believing that the market is turning bearish and has entered short positions. We also seized the opportunity and made a few hundred points in long positions. The caution is that the Vegas channel has been thrown off by Ethereum's rise by a wide margin. One day, it might suddenly revert by 500 points; it is not impossible. So when making trades, just keep tight stop losses and focus on key positions for betting. Even if it keeps hitting the break-even point, do not enlarge the stop loss. Unlike Bitcoin, I will try to short Ethereum at 4800, provided that it remains weak and struggles to reach 4800 without a strong breakout; otherwise, I will not short. 4640 is a key position.