August 14, 2025 – Bitcoin has set a new all-time high, crossing $124,000 and sparking one of the biggest debates in crypto history: Is the market about to break free from its long-observed 4-year halving cycle?
Breaking Through After Weeks of Consolidation
Before this milestone, Bitcoin spent over a month trading between $118,000 and $120,000, with fierce battles between bullish buyers and short sellers. According to Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, the “slow but steady” buying pressure eventually overcame resistance, driving prices sharply higher.
This rally coincides with Wall Street’s post-summer return and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. A weaker U.S. dollar and renewed “risk-on” sentiment among investors have further fueled the bullish move.
Q4 – The Make-or-Break Moment for the 4-Year Halving Theory
Consorti, citing analysis from James Check (Checkmate – CheckOnChain), notes that Q4 could decide whether the 4-year Bitcoin cycle still applies. Historically, Bitcoin’s most explosive gains have occurred in the final quarter of a cycle year.
“If there was ever a time for the 4-year Bitcoin cycle to be broken, this is it,” Check stated. A lack of a Q4 surge could suggest Bitcoin is now moving according to a new market model.
Institutional Capital Changes the Game
One of the biggest shifts this cycle is the investor base. Much of the current buying is coming from spot Bitcoin ETFs, a channel favored by pension funds, endowments, and institutional investors.
For example, the Harvard University Endowment Fund disclosed a purchase of 1.9 million shares in the iShares Bitcoin Trust, worth $116.7 million in Q2. These types of investors typically hold for years—if not decades—selling gradually according to long-term capital strategies rather than short-term trading.
A More Mature, Less Volatile Market
Consorti points out that this wave of long-term, deep-pocketed capital has made the market more stable. Price action now often follows a “accumulate – break out – accumulate” rhythm, with less extreme volatility.
With much of Bitcoin’s supply now held by long-term investors, maintaining a $2.4 trillion+ market capitalization is possible without the deep corrections seen in earlier cycles.
The Road Ahead: All Eyes on Q4
A combination of loose monetary policy, institutional inflows, and steady ETF demand could set the stage for a standout Q4. But whether this quarter mirrors previous bull market peaks—or ushers in a slower, more sustained growth era—remains uncertain.
> “Only after Q4 this year will we truly know whether the 4-year cycle has ended or not,” Consorti says. “Let’s wait and see.”
Bottom line: Bitcoin is at a historic crossroads. If Q4 delivers another explosive rally, the halving cycle narrative will be reinforced. If not, the cryptocurrency may have officially entered a new growth paradigm—one driven less by retail speculation and more by the steady hand of institutional capital.