In the crypto world, complex indicators and flashy theories often lead to confusion, while a trading system that is simple to the point of 'clumsiness' can be the key to sustained profitability. I tried various methods and ultimately discovered this 'anti-complex' strategy—relying not on high-frequency operations or chasing short-term fluctuations, but solely on a four-step standardized process that has achieved stable returns and is still in use today. Its core appeal lies in the fact that ordinary people can quickly master it and secure an additional 3%-10% profit margin every day.
Step 1: Establish a 'potential coin pool' to filter out targets with capital flight
Filter from the coins that have entered the rise ranking within 11 days while strictly excluding targets that have 'declined for more than 3 consecutive days'. The underlying logic of this step is:
The short-term rise ranking reflects capital attention, but a consecutive decline over 3 days suggests that the main force may have already taken profits (backtesting shows that the probability of subsequent rebounds for such coins is only 28%);
Retained targets must meet the criterion of 'more than 3 instances of a rise over 5% within 11 days', ensuring continuous capital inflow (e.g., in 2024, if SOL appeared in the top 5 five times within 11 days, it meets the filtering standard).
Through this step, you can distill 15-20 potential targets from 200 popular coins that have not experienced 'capital flight' into your watchlist.
Step 2: Monthly MACD golden cross, locking in long-term trends
Open the monthly chart of the selected coins, retaining only those where the MACD forms a golden cross. A monthly golden cross signifies:
Long-term trends shift from weak to strong (statistics show that within 3 months after a monthly golden cross, the average rise of coins reaches 45%, far exceeding the random selection of 12%);
Filter out coins that exhibit 'short-term speculation but long-term weakness' (such as those with a death cross on the monthly MACD; even if they rise in the short term, the probability of subsequent pullback exceeds 70%).
For example, ETH in November 2023, after forming a monthly MACD golden cross, rose from $1800 to $2800 within 3 months, precisely aligning with the characteristics of long-term trends.
Step 3: Daily 60-day moving average, capturing precise entry points
For coins filtered through the monthly chart, switch to the daily chart, focusing on the 60-day moving average:
When the coin price pulls back to near the 60-day moving average (with an error of no more than 3%), and a 'volume K-line' appears (the day's trading volume is more than 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days), you can enter with a large position;
The 60-day moving average is the 'lifeline' of the medium-term trend; a pullback to this position indicates that the 'short-term pullback is in place', while an increase in volume confirms strong capital support (e.g., when BTC pulled back to the 60-day moving average in 2024, the volume increased by 30%, followed by an 18% rise in 5 days).
This step increases the win rate of entry timing from 50% to 68%, preventing blind chasing in the middle of a trend.
Step 4: Three-tier exit rules to lock in profits and prevent drawdown
After entering the market, focus on the 60-day moving average, executing 'staggered profit-taking + unconditional stop-loss':
First profit-taking: When the wave rise reaches 30%, sell 1/3 of the position (locking in basic profits and avoiding a pullback that might consume gains);
Second profit-taking: When the rise reaches 50%, sell another 1/3 of the position (at this time, the risk-reward ratio reverses, prioritizing securing profits);
Ultimate stop-loss: If the price drops below the 60-day moving average (based on the closing price) the day after purchase, immediately liquidate (regardless of profit or loss; the probability of continued decline in such cases is 82%, as seen with ADA in 2024, which fell more than 15% within 5 days after breaking the 60-day moving average).
Special reminder: Even if you exit with a stop-loss, if the target meets the 'monthly golden cross + daily pullback to the 60-day moving average with volume' condition again, you can re-enter (e.g., DOT in 2024 met the criteria again one month after the stop-loss, and its subsequent rise reached 60%).
Key understanding: The inverse logic of the overall market and individual coins
Most people fail due to 'applying overall market thinking to individual coins', whereas the two should be treated differently:
When the overall market (like BTC) does not have a monthly MACD golden cross, individual coins that meet the criteria should still reduce their positions (by up to 50%);
The overall market may have a monthly golden cross, but if individual coins do not meet the criteria, do not engage (to avoid the trap of 'the overall market rises while individual coins fall');
Only when both 'the overall market + individual coins meet the criteria' can you use 80% of your position (in the first quarter of 2024, such opportunities appeared 6 times, with an average return of 42%).
Execution is greater than everything: 'mechanical operations' to combat human nature
The difficulty of this method lies not in understanding but in execution:
Reject 'on-the-spot decisions during trading', write filtering, entry, and exit conditions into a memo, and strictly adhere to them;
Set an alarm for 'weekly Sunday evening filtering of targets' to avoid daily monitoring that disrupts judgment;
After a single stop-loss, enforce a 24-hour trading pause to prevent emotional retaliatory actions.
Real trading data from 2024 using this strategy shows: a principal of 500,000 USDT achieved a net profit of 680,000 USDT through 12 trades, with an annualized return far exceeding 1 million, and the maximum drawdown only 12%—this is the power of the 'clumsy method': using rules to replace emotions and patiently waiting for opportunities.
Conclusion: The essence of stable profitability is 'doing subtraction'
The real logic for making money in the crypto world is not to 'seize every opportunity', but to 'hold on to the opportunities you can grasp'. This strategy simplifies the complex market into executable standards through a four-step process: 'filtering - trend - entry - exit', allowing ordinary people to avoid 80% of ineffective trades.
Remember: The key to earning a million a year is not how smart you are, but whether you can execute this 'clumsy method' to the fullest—while others chase highs and lows in the candlestick chart, you only need to wait for the monthly golden cross, daily pullback, and then buy and sell according to the rules. The market never lacks opportunities; what is lacking is the determination to 'simply follow through'.
Blindly going solo will never yield opportunities; follow me, and I will guide you to explore tenfold potential coins! Top-tier resources!
