Bitcoin just recorded a new historical milestone, surpassing $124,000 on August 14, marking an all-time high and starting a major debate: Will Bitcoin's familiar 4-year halving cycle soon be broken?

The Breakthrough After the Stagnation

According to Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, before reaching a new peak, Bitcoin went through over a month oscillating around the $118,000 - $120,000 range, with a fierce battle between buyers and short sellers. However, the ‘slow but steady’ buyers gained control, driving prices up strongly.

This is happening just as Wall Street returns after the summer break, and expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in September are rising. A weaker USD and the 'risk-on' sentiment among investors have fueled the rally.

Q4 – The Life-and-Death Test of the 4-Year Cycle

Consorti leads analysis from James Check (Checkmate – CheckOnChain), who argues that if Q4 sees an explosive rise similar to previous cycle peaks, the 4-year halving theory still holds. But if not, the market may have entered a completely new model.

Check candidly states: 'If there was ever a time for the 4-year Bitcoin cycle to be broken, this is it.'

The Big Shift: Institutional Money Has Entered the Fray

The biggest difference according to Consorti is that the investor base has changed. The buying power now primarily comes from spot Bitcoin ETF funds – the investment channel for pension funds, sponsorship funds, and institutional investors.

For example, the Harvard University Endowment Fund purchased 1.9 million shares of iShares Bitcoin Trust valued at $116.7 million in Q2. These institutions typically hold long-term – for many years, even decades – and only gradually sell according to capital management strategies, rather than trading short-term.

The Market is Maturing

According to Consorti, the new market structure naturally reduces volatility, but the uptrend continues in a 'accumulate - break out - accumulate' rhythm, at a slower but more sustainable pace.

When supply is concentrated in the hands of long-term holders and deeper institutional capital, Bitcoin can easily maintain a massive market capitalization of over $2.4 trillion without deep corrections like before.

Q4 – A Defining Moment

Consorti believes that the combination of:

  • Loose monetary policy

  • Institutional capital is returning strongly after the summer

  • Sustainable demand from ETFs, enterprises, and value investors

...will lay the groundwork for a brilliant Q4.

However, he also acknowledges: 'Only after Q4 this year will we truly know whether the 4-year cycle has ended or not. Let's wait and see.'

💡 Conclusion: Bitcoin stands at a moment that could change the perception of the entire cryptocurrency market. If Q4 explodes, the 4-year halving cycle will be reinforced. But if not, we may witness the birth of a new growth model, led by 'big players' in finance and long-term institutional capital.