The current ETH price is fluctuating around $4700, showing a trend of short-term volume contraction and upward movement. Technical indicators are beginning to show overbought signals, so caution is advised for potential pullback risks. Below are key point analyses and operational strategies:

1. Key price ranges and long-short battles

  • 3636 (POC): Long and short cost zone, if it retraces, it can be seen as a buying opportunity.

  • 3600-3750: Strong support zone, which is likely to trigger a rebound after a sharp drop.

  • Above 4700: Trading volume is sparse; if it breaks through, it may accelerate upward, but it is currently close to the top of the range, so beware of false breakouts.

  • Divergence in momentum: 4536-4555 has a buying advantage, but there is significant selling pressure near 4775 (2.4 times sell orders to buy orders), indicating strong resistance at high levels.


2. Technical indicator signals

  • The price is 14% off MA200 (4129), indicating short-term overheating, increasing the probability of a pullback.

  • The upper Bollinger Band on the 1-hour chart is 4771; if the price touches it and then pulls back, it may retrace to the middle band at 4660.

  • Contract positions have slightly decreased, capital rates are stable, and there is no frenzied bullish sentiment; the market is becoming cautious.

    3. Operational strategies

(1) Aggressive strategy

  • Light positions between 4683-4692, stop-loss at 4650, target at 4775/4830.

  • If it stabilizes above 4775 with increased volume, one may chase long positions looking towards 4830-4850.

(2) Conservative strategy

  • Wait for stabilization on low volume between 4619-4637 before entering, with a stop-loss at 4590.

(3) Risk control

  • If it falls below 4619, switch to a bearish outlook, looking at the support level of 4555.

  • LP suggestion: Set grid orders between 4600-4750 to capture range fluctuation profits.

    4. Summary: Be cautious of sharp rises followed by declines; key support levels determine the trend.

  • Short-term upward momentum is weakening, with clear pressure above 4700; one must guard against false breakouts followed by a pullback to the 4600-4660 range.

  • If it holds the 4600-4637 support, it remains a strong consolidation, and further upward movement is expected.

  • If it falls below 4619, it may trigger a deeper pullback, targeting 4555 or even below 4500.

The current market is at a critical turning point, with high risks of a double whammy for both bulls and bears. It is recommended to strictly set stop-losses to avoid emotional trading.

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