#HotJulyPPI refers to the report of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) published on August 14, 2025, which came in much higher than expected, raising alarms about inflationary pressures.

📊 Key data for July 2025

1. Strong monthly increase:

The final demand PPI rose 0.9% in July, after being flat in June and well above the forecast of +0.2%.

2. Widespread increase:

Services: +1.1% (the largest increase since March 2022), highlighting machinery, portfolio management, lodging, and transportation.

Goods: +0.7% (the highest since January), driven by fresh and dried vegetables, meat, diesel, eggs, etc.

3. Annual trend:

Over 12 months, the PPI rose 3.3% (vs. 2.4% in June), the largest annual increase since February 2025.

The core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) rose 0.6% monthly and 2.8% annually, the highest in more than 3 and a half years.

4. Most impacted sectors:

Fresh and dried vegetables: +38.9%.

Diesel: +11.8%, raw milk: +9.1%.

Trade margins in machinery and portfolio management also saw significant increases.

📉 Reactions and implications

Inflationary pressure: The jump suggests that companies are passing higher costs along the production chain.

Fed policy: Expectations for an interest rate cut in September are dramatically reduced.