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Current situation (as of today, August 14, 2025) $ETH:
• Current price: approximately $4,631, down slightly (~1.4%) from the previous close, having fluctuated between $4,492 and $4,783 during the session.
• Platforms such as CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko indicate a decline of 2% to 4% over the course of 24 hours, along with frequent fluctuations in trading volume.
• Partial market declines came despite previous talk of the price being close to its all-time high (ATH), due to wholesale inflation data that raised doubts about possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Fundamental Factors and Potential Catalysts for $ETH:
1. Declining Inflation and Raising Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts:
• Despite strong inflation data, market expectations for easing measures from the Federal Reserve in September remain a key support for risk assets like ETH.
2. Strong Gains Over the Past Weeks:
• Ethereum has risen approximately 41% over the past month, and 14% over the week.
• The price remains near its ATH, supported by massive inflows into institutional ETFs, the effects of updates like Pectra, and improved regulatory environments like the Genius Act.
3. Positive Future Outlook:
• Some analysts suggest that ETH could reach $10,000–$15,000 within a few weeks to months, supported by the adoption of artificial intelligence and the integration of blockchain technologies on Wall Street.
• Others see intermediate targets around $7,500 using Fibonacci patterns.
Technical Analysis for the Next 24 Hours:
• Tradzar website (Hourly Technical Analysis):
• An ascending triangle has formed with resistance around $4,735–$4,748 and rising support.
• Base Scenario (60% probability): A temporary rebound towards $4,700, followed by a breakout of resistance towards $4,820–$4,870.
• Alternative Scenario (25%): Consolidation between $4,655 and $4,750, followed by a subsequent breakout.
• Bearish Scenario (15%): Failure to maintain $4,700 leads to a decline towards $4,630–$4,640, but the overall trend remains bullish unless the $4,600 support is broken.
• Other Tools:
• The short-term RSI remains neutral or oversold, while the moving averages are moving below the price, indicating overall bullish momentum.
• AI analysis or short-term forecasts (such as PriceFore) indicate slight positive movements followed by a slight correction—but these are very accurate models for very short periods.
General Summary: Today and into tomorrow:
1- Direct uptrend (higher probability), testing $4,735 resistance → a possible breakout towards $4,820–$4,870.
2- Consolidation before a breakout, trading between $4,655–$4,750 before a more pronounced move.
3- Minor correction, a possible pullback towards $4,630–$4,640 if $4,700 is not maintained.
• Overall, the uptrend remains intact, supported by technical aspects (such as the ascending triangle and RSI/MACD movement) and strong fundamental indicators (technological updates, regulatory changes, and institutional flows).
• On the trading front, it is preferable to enter at a correction towards $4,700–$4,705 with a stop-loss below $4,650, and a target of $4,820 and then $4,870.
Conclusion:
• Over the next 24 hours, we are likely to see continued upward momentum, with the potential to test the $4,800+ levels if resistance is successfully broken.
• The overall trend remains positive, and underlying support is strong.
• It is recommended to trade cautiously, setting clear stop levels, and developing entry strategies for short corrections to maximize gains and minimize risks.
