The actual value of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded market expectations. The core implication of this phenomenon is that inflationary pressures in upstream sectors are more pronounced than previously anticipated.

For the Federal Reserve, the greatest concern when planning the pace of interest rate cuts is a potential "rebound" in inflation. Therefore, such unexpected data will prompt a more cautious approach to policy adjustments.

The specific transmission logic can be understood as follows: a rise in the PPI directly increases operating costs for upstream companies, and this cost pressure is likely to be transmitted downstream along the supply chain, thereby pushing up the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Once the CPI is affected, inflation levels may be difficult to decline or may even rebound. This will cause the Federal Reserve to worry that prematurely initiating rate cuts could trigger another surge in inflation, ultimately delaying the timing of the cuts and weakening their impact.

However, based on the non-farm payroll and CPI data, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September remains high, but the magnitude of the cut is unlikely to reach 50 basis points, and is more likely to remain at 25 basis points.

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