• Matt Hougan commented on the bullish phase of the crypto market.

  • He believes that experts do not take into account some factors that may materialize in the coming months or years.

  • These include purchases of Bitcoins by governments and the devaluation of the dollar.

CIO #Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan named four factors that have not yet materialized in the context of the crypto market. These are the purchase of Bitcoins by states, the devaluation of the dollar, the reduction of the volatility of the first cryptocurrency, and a new wave of initial coin offerings (ICOs).

In his note, Hougan mentioned that experts and traders focused all their attention on well-known pricing factors. These include:

  • shift in regulatory regulation;

  • adoption of stablecoins;

  • purchases of crypto assets by institutions through exchange-traded funds and treasury companies;

  • growth of the Ethereum ecosystem $ETH , which, according to Hougan, adds "energy to altcoins" in the crypto market.

The expert believes that the effect of each of these factors is currently underestimated. At the same time, there are others that may also influence the sector and lead to a new rally.

States will be more active in buying crypto assets

According to Bitwise's forecast, governments, exchange-traded funds (#etf ) and large corporations are the main players shaping demand for the first cryptocurrency. The last two of these factors have materialized, buying 183,126 BTC and 354,744 $BTC respectively since the beginning of 2025.

According to Hougan, due to this, the price of Bitcoin has risen by more than 27%. However, the third factor has not yet materialized. The expert calls the assertion that the narrative of creating cryptocurrency reserves for countries has lost its relevance erroneous.

"I will clarify: I do not think that by the end of the year we will see a wave of nationwide statements. However, I suspect that there will be more of them — enough to make this the most significant potential catalyst for 2026. Just the awareness of this can significantly raise prices," he stated.

Devaluation of the dollar and interest rates

The expert emphasized that Bitcoin is trading near its historical maximum under extremely tight policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). At the same time, Trump advocates for its easing, openly criticizing the regulator's chairman Jerome Powell and appointing his candidate to the Board of Governors — Stephen Miran.

According to Hougan, the latter in his works questions the feasibility of the dollar's role as a global reserve currency, as this creates a significant burden for the U.S. Miran advocates for its devaluation relative to other currencies, including through additional issuance.

The decrease in interest rates and the fall of the dollar will only support the already upward price trend of Bitcoin, the expert noted.

Bitcoin volatility is decreasing

Hougan pointed out that since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the asset's price has become more predictable.

According to the expert, the current volatility of the first cryptocurrency is at the level of shares of large companies, such as Nvidia. Hougan considers this the "new norm" for the asset.

This, in turn, affects the adoption of Bitcoin by asset managers. If before the launch of spot ETFs the starting point was a share of 1%, now it is 5%, emphasized Hougan.

ICO 2.0

According to the expert, the wave of ICOs from fraudulent projects in 2018 was one of the reasons for the subsequent bear phase in the market. Most investors wrote off this tool, but it was mentioned in his speech by the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Paul Atkins.

"If this happens [revival of the ICO practice], I think it could become a significant catalyst for growth. Crypto investors have historically been willing to invest in projects — both during the ICO boom and after it. The launch of a new ICO 2.0 market could attract significant new capital," the expert believes.

Summarizing the above, Hougan noted that markets grow not on good news, but on good news that is not priced in. In his opinion, these factors may play their role in the coming months or years.